Naše backtestiranje je pokazalo, da je bil remi v italijanskem nogometu sistematično podcenjen. Odkritja iz backtestov so navadno prividi — zato ga nismo prodali, ampak smo pravila vnaprej zamrznili, jih hashirali, sidrali v Bitcoin in jih bomo v živo testirali celo sezono. Javno. Kakorkoli se konča.
Registrirano · začne veljati s prvo tekmo Serie A / Serie B v sezoni 2026-27 (avgust 2026). Izbire bodo prikazane v javni zgodovini.
V šestih sezonah začetnih kvot je remi v Italiji prinašal več, kot bi moral: blind-draw EV v Serie B +7.2% (CI95 +0.5% do +14.3%, pozitiven v 6 od 6 sezon), Serie A +4.9%, z jasnim gradientom — kratke remi kvote (≤3.5) so močno pozitivne v obeh ligah, dolge remi kvote negativne. Verjeten mehanizem: nihče ne mara remija, zato njegova cena dobi najmanj tržne korekcije.
Celotna specifikacija je zamrznjena v javni datoteki. Njen SHA-256 hash je vpisan v naš javni GitHub ledger in sidran v verigi blokov Bitcoin prek OpenTimestamps. Če bi po ogledu rezultatov spremenili celo vejico, bi se hash spremenil in poseg bi bil dokazljiv.
Preberi zamrznjeno specifikacijo → Preveri na GitHubu (z dokazom OpenTimestamps) →
95% bootstrap confidence interval for average CLV: +6.65% to +50.57% (on 29 settled selections with a closing price). The pre-registered success criterion is an interval entirely above zero at season end.
| Match | Entry (open) | Pinnacle close | CLV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parma — Genoa
Serie A · 20 Sep 2026, 16:30 UTC |
2.91 | — | — | pending |
| Fiorentina — Napoli
Serie A · 20 Sep 2026, 16:30 UTC |
3.48 | — | — | pending |
| Venezia — Lazio
Serie A · 19 Sep 2026, 18:45 UTC |
3.42 | — | — | pending |
| AS Roma — Inter
Serie A · 19 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTC |
3.19 | — | — | pending |
| Udinese — Cagliari
Serie A · 19 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC |
3.29 | — | — | pending |
| Monza — Sassuolo
Serie A · 18 Sep 2026, 18:45 UTC |
3.33 | — | — | pending |
| Mantova — Sampdoria
Serie B · 13 Sep 2026, 15:15 UTC |
3.30 | — | — | pending |
| Lecce — Monza
Serie A · 13 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC |
3.20 | — | — | pending |
| Avellino — Palermo
Serie B · 13 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC |
3.24 | — | — | pending |
| Cesena — Cremonese
Serie B · 12 Sep 2026, 17:30 UTC |
3.27 | — | — | pending |
| Lazio — AC Milan
Serie A · 12 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTC |
3.23 | — | — | pending |
| Sudtirol — Modena
Serie B · 12 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC |
2.87 | — | — | pending |
| Genoa — Frosinone
Serie A · 12 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC |
3.47 | — | — | pending |
| Vicenza Virtus — Juve Stabia
Serie B · 12 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC |
3.12 | — | — | pending |
| Padova — Ascoli
Serie B · 12 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC |
3.20 | — | — | pending |
| Pisa — Virtus Entella
Serie B · 11 Sep 2026, 19:00 UTC |
3.32 | 3.28 | +1.2% | ❌ |
| Benevento — Hellas Verona
Serie B · 11 Sep 2026, 19:00 UTC |
3.03 | 3.12 | -2.9% | ❌ |
| Venezia — Fiorentina
Serie A · 11 Sep 2026, 18:45 UTC |
3.33 | 3.49 | -4.6% | ❌ |
| Empoli — Arezzo
Serie B · 11 Sep 2026, 17:00 UTC |
3.31 | 1.67 | +98.2% | ❌ |
| Udinese — Lazio
Serie A · 07 Sep 2026, 18:45 UTC |
3.13 | 3.12 | +0.3% | ❌ |
| Palermo — Sampdoria
Serie B · 07 Sep 2026, 18:30 UTC |
3.37 | 3.90 | -13.6% | ❌ |
| Cagliari — Lecce
Serie A · 07 Sep 2026, 16:30 UTC |
3.27 | 4.95 | -33.9% | ❌ |
| Juventus — AC Milan
Serie A · 06 Sep 2026, 18:45 UTC |
3.38 | 3.09 | +9.4% | ✅ |
| Juve Stabia — Pisa
Serie B · 06 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC |
3.10 | 4.18 | -25.8% | ❌ |
| Virtus Entella — Vicenza Virtus
Serie B · 06 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC |
3.18 | 1.19 | +167.2% | ✅ |
| Cesena — Mantova
Serie B · 06 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC |
3.37 | 1.20 | +180.8% | ✅ |
| Parma — Monza
Serie A · 06 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC |
3.14 | 1.38 | +127.5% | ✅ |
| Frosinone — Venezia
Serie A · 06 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC |
3.41 | 1.68 | +103.0% | ❌ |
| Carrarese — Empoli
Serie B · 05 Sep 2026, 17:30 UTC |
3.24 | 3.16 | +2.5% | ❌ |
| Ascoli — Benevento
Serie B · 05 Sep 2026, 15:15 UTC |
3.38 | 1.70 | +98.8% | ❌ |
| Sudtirol — Catanzaro
Serie B · 05 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC |
3.18 | 1.42 | +123.9% | ❌ |
| Fiorentina — Torino
Serie A · 05 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC |
3.23 | 5.15 | -37.3% | ❌ |
| Genoa — Como
Serie A · 04 Sep 2026, 18:45 UTC |
3.21 | 3.66 | -12.3% | ❌ |
| Bologna — Lazio
Serie A · 24 Aug 2026, 16:30 UTC |
3.30 | 3.23 | +2.2% | ❌ |
| Cesena — Sampdoria
Serie B · 23 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC |
3.29 | 3.29 | +0.0% | ✅ |
| Venezia — Lecce
Serie A · 23 Aug 2026, 16:30 UTC |
3.18 | 3.19 | -0.3% | ❌ |
| Avellino — Arezzo
Serie B · 22 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC |
3.24 | 3.24 | +0.0% | ❌ |
| Empoli — Cremonese
Serie B · 22 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC |
3.15 | 3.15 | +0.0% | ❌ |
| Benevento — Modena
Serie B · 22 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC |
3.34 | 3.31 | +0.9% | ❌ |
| Parma — Cagliari
Serie A · 22 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC |
3.01 | 2.99 | +0.7% | ❌ |
| Sudtirol — Virtus Entella
Serie B · 22 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC |
3.14 | 3.04 | +3.3% | ❌ |
| Carrarese — Mantova
Serie B · 22 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC |
3.21 | 3.21 | +0.0% | ❌ |
| Udinese — Como
Serie A · 22 Aug 2026, 16:30 UTC |
3.47 | 3.52 | -1.4% | ✅ |
| Vicenza Virtus — Catanzaro
Serie B · 21 Aug 2026, 18:30 UTC |
3.17 | 3.17 | +0.0% | ❌ |
Selections are written to this ledger before kick-off and never edited afterwards; the daily public snapshot on GitHub is timestamped externally, so any later change would be visible. Entry price is Pinnacle's opening draw price from our first snapshot; CLV compares it to Pinnacle's closing price on the same market — no line shopping. Wins and losses appear here alike, and the season runs to the end regardless of how it looks in between. Documented outage (rule 6): our odds feed ran out of provider credits between 12 August and 1 September 2026, so matchweek 2 has no opening prices and no selections. It is not backfilled — logging it after the results were known would break the rule that makes this test meaningful.
Italija je bila izbrana iz pregleda 17 lig, zato je tveganje večkratnega testiranja realno. Pas ≤3.5 je bil izbran po ogledu podatkov. Tržni učinki s časom usihajo. Prav zato gre za forward test s predhodno zavezanimi pravili in ne za priporočilo za stave: če je edge privid, ga boste tukaj gledali umreti, javno, in dobil bo svoj vpis v naše pokopališče strategij. Preberi razlago →