Naši backtestovi pokazali su da je remi u talijanskom nogometu sustavno bio podcijenjen. Otkrića iz backtesta su obično fatamorgane — pa smo umjesto prodaje pravila zamrznuli unaprijed, hashirali ih, ukotvili u Bitcoin i testirat ćemo ih uživo cijelu sezonu. Javno. Kako god završilo.
Registrirano · kreće s prvom utakmicom Serie A / Serie B u sezoni 2026-27 (kolovoz 2026). Odabiri će se pojavljivati u javnoj evidenciji.
Kroz šest sezona početnih tečajeva remi u Italiji vraćao je više nego što je trebao: Serie B blind-draw EV +7.2% (CI95 +0.5% do +14.3%, pozitivno u 6 od 6 sezona), Serie A +4.9%, uz jasan gradijent — kratki tečajevi na remi (≤3.5) snažno pozitivni u obje lige, dugi tečajevi negativni. Vjerojatan mehanizam: nitko ne voli remi, pa mu cijena dobiva najmanju tržišnu korekciju.
Kompletna specifikacija zamrznuta je u javnoj datoteci. Njezin SHA-256 hash upisan je u naš javni GitHub ledger i ukotvljen u Bitcoin blockchain putem OpenTimestampsa. Ako bismo ikad promijenili zarez nakon što vidimo rezultate, hash bi se promijenio i manipulacija bi bila dokaziva.
Pročitaj zamrznutu specifikaciju → Provjeri na GitHubu (s OpenTimestamps dokazom) →
95% bootstrap confidence interval for average CLV: +6.65% to +50.57% (on 29 settled selections with a closing price). The pre-registered success criterion is an interval entirely above zero at season end.
| Match | Entry (open) | Pinnacle close | CLV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parma — Genoa
Serie A · 20 Sep 2026, 16:30 UTC |
2.91 | — | — | pending |
| Fiorentina — Napoli
Serie A · 20 Sep 2026, 16:30 UTC |
3.48 | — | — | pending |
| Venezia — Lazio
Serie A · 19 Sep 2026, 18:45 UTC |
3.42 | — | — | pending |
| AS Roma — Inter
Serie A · 19 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTC |
3.19 | — | — | pending |
| Udinese — Cagliari
Serie A · 19 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC |
3.29 | — | — | pending |
| Monza — Sassuolo
Serie A · 18 Sep 2026, 18:45 UTC |
3.33 | — | — | pending |
| Mantova — Sampdoria
Serie B · 13 Sep 2026, 15:15 UTC |
3.30 | — | — | pending |
| Lecce — Monza
Serie A · 13 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC |
3.20 | — | — | pending |
| Avellino — Palermo
Serie B · 13 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC |
3.24 | — | — | pending |
| Cesena — Cremonese
Serie B · 12 Sep 2026, 17:30 UTC |
3.27 | — | — | pending |
| Lazio — AC Milan
Serie A · 12 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTC |
3.23 | — | — | pending |
| Sudtirol — Modena
Serie B · 12 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC |
2.87 | — | — | pending |
| Genoa — Frosinone
Serie A · 12 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC |
3.47 | — | — | pending |
| Vicenza Virtus — Juve Stabia
Serie B · 12 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC |
3.12 | — | — | pending |
| Padova — Ascoli
Serie B · 12 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC |
3.20 | — | — | pending |
| Pisa — Virtus Entella
Serie B · 11 Sep 2026, 19:00 UTC |
3.32 | 3.28 | +1.2% | ❌ |
| Benevento — Hellas Verona
Serie B · 11 Sep 2026, 19:00 UTC |
3.03 | 3.12 | -2.9% | ❌ |
| Venezia — Fiorentina
Serie A · 11 Sep 2026, 18:45 UTC |
3.33 | 3.49 | -4.6% | ❌ |
| Empoli — Arezzo
Serie B · 11 Sep 2026, 17:00 UTC |
3.31 | 1.67 | +98.2% | ❌ |
| Udinese — Lazio
Serie A · 07 Sep 2026, 18:45 UTC |
3.13 | 3.12 | +0.3% | ❌ |
| Palermo — Sampdoria
Serie B · 07 Sep 2026, 18:30 UTC |
3.37 | 3.90 | -13.6% | ❌ |
| Cagliari — Lecce
Serie A · 07 Sep 2026, 16:30 UTC |
3.27 | 4.95 | -33.9% | ❌ |
| Juventus — AC Milan
Serie A · 06 Sep 2026, 18:45 UTC |
3.38 | 3.09 | +9.4% | ✅ |
| Juve Stabia — Pisa
Serie B · 06 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC |
3.10 | 4.18 | -25.8% | ❌ |
| Virtus Entella — Vicenza Virtus
Serie B · 06 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC |
3.18 | 1.19 | +167.2% | ✅ |
| Cesena — Mantova
Serie B · 06 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC |
3.37 | 1.20 | +180.8% | ✅ |
| Parma — Monza
Serie A · 06 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC |
3.14 | 1.38 | +127.5% | ✅ |
| Frosinone — Venezia
Serie A · 06 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC |
3.41 | 1.68 | +103.0% | ❌ |
| Carrarese — Empoli
Serie B · 05 Sep 2026, 17:30 UTC |
3.24 | 3.16 | +2.5% | ❌ |
| Ascoli — Benevento
Serie B · 05 Sep 2026, 15:15 UTC |
3.38 | 1.70 | +98.8% | ❌ |
| Sudtirol — Catanzaro
Serie B · 05 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC |
3.18 | 1.42 | +123.9% | ❌ |
| Fiorentina — Torino
Serie A · 05 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC |
3.23 | 5.15 | -37.3% | ❌ |
| Genoa — Como
Serie A · 04 Sep 2026, 18:45 UTC |
3.21 | 3.66 | -12.3% | ❌ |
| Bologna — Lazio
Serie A · 24 Aug 2026, 16:30 UTC |
3.30 | 3.23 | +2.2% | ❌ |
| Cesena — Sampdoria
Serie B · 23 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC |
3.29 | 3.29 | +0.0% | ✅ |
| Venezia — Lecce
Serie A · 23 Aug 2026, 16:30 UTC |
3.18 | 3.19 | -0.3% | ❌ |
| Avellino — Arezzo
Serie B · 22 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC |
3.24 | 3.24 | +0.0% | ❌ |
| Empoli — Cremonese
Serie B · 22 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC |
3.15 | 3.15 | +0.0% | ❌ |
| Benevento — Modena
Serie B · 22 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC |
3.34 | 3.31 | +0.9% | ❌ |
| Parma — Cagliari
Serie A · 22 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC |
3.01 | 2.99 | +0.7% | ❌ |
| Sudtirol — Virtus Entella
Serie B · 22 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC |
3.14 | 3.04 | +3.3% | ❌ |
| Carrarese — Mantova
Serie B · 22 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC |
3.21 | 3.21 | +0.0% | ❌ |
| Udinese — Como
Serie A · 22 Aug 2026, 16:30 UTC |
3.47 | 3.52 | -1.4% | ✅ |
| Vicenza Virtus — Catanzaro
Serie B · 21 Aug 2026, 18:30 UTC |
3.17 | 3.17 | +0.0% | ❌ |
Selections are written to this ledger before kick-off and never edited afterwards; the daily public snapshot on GitHub is timestamped externally, so any later change would be visible. Entry price is Pinnacle's opening draw price from our first snapshot; CLV compares it to Pinnacle's closing price on the same market — no line shopping. Wins and losses appear here alike, and the season runs to the end regardless of how it looks in between. Documented outage (rule 6): our odds feed ran out of provider credits between 12 August and 1 September 2026, so matchweek 2 has no opening prices and no selections. It is not backfilled — logging it after the results were known would break the rule that makes this test meaningful.
Italija je izdvojena iz skeniranja 17 liga, pa je rizik višestrukog testiranja stvaran. Raspon ≤3.5 odabran je nakon uvida u podatke. Tržišni efekti slabe. Upravo zato je ovo forward test s unaprijed preuzetim pravilima, a ne preporuka za klađenje: ako je edge fatamorgana, gledat ćete kako ovdje umire, javno, i dobit će vlastiti unos u našem groblju strategija. Pročitaj objašnjenje →