每场 USL Championship 赛事的公允、无水位概率，博彩公司出错时的 value 标记，以及积分榜——基于尖锐市场数据，而不是凭感觉。
根据 TipsAudit 数据集中的比赛重建——并非官方积分榜。球队显示的比赛场次可能不同，且不区分附加赛或保级赛阶段。官方排名请使用联赛官方来源。
| # | 球队 | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 40 | 20 | +20 | 48 |
| 2 | New Mexico United | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 33 | 23 | +10 | 41 |
| 3 | El Paso Locomotive | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 39 | 29 | +10 | 40 |
| 4 | Charleston Battery | 23 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 47 | 29 | +18 | 39 |
| 5 | Detroit City | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 28 | 18 | +10 | 37 |
| 6 | Colorado Springs | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 40 | 37 | +3 | 37 |
| 7 | FC Tulsa | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 26 | 19 | +7 | 36 |
| 8 | Orange County SC | 23 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 34 | 32 | +2 | 36 |
| 9 | San Antonio | 24 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 29 | 28 | +1 | 36 |
| 10 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 27 | 25 | +2 | 35 |
| 11 | Sacramento Republic | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 29 | 20 | +9 | 33 |
| 12 | Louisville City | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 38 | 37 | +1 | 33 |
| 13 | Lexington | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 33 | 29 | +4 | 31 |
| 14 | Hartford Athletic | 22 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 21 | 22 | -1 | 31 |
| 15 | Phoenix Rising | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 32 | 31 | +1 | 30 |
| 16 | Indy Eleven | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 28 | 28 | +0 | 30 |
| 17 | Rhode Island | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 31 | 24 | +7 | 29 |
| 18 | Las Vegas Lights | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 29 | 34 | -5 | 29 |
| 19 | Oakland Roots | 23 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 27 |
| 20 | Miami FC | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 23 |
| 21 | Loudoun United | 22 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 26 | 39 | -13 | 20 |
| 22 | Birmingham Legion | 21 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 18 |
| 23 | Monterey Bay | 24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 25 | 42 | -17 | 18 |
| 24 | Brooklyn | 21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 22 | 38 | -16 | 16 |
| 25 | Sporting JAX | 23 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 30 | 60 | -30 | 14 |
| # | 球队 | 平均排名 | 夺冠概率 | 降级概率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Mexico United | 1.8 | 60.2% | 0% |
| 2 | El Paso Locomotive | 2.7 | 26.2% | 0% |
| 3 | FC Tulsa | 5.6 | 4.9% | 0% |
| 4 | Sacramento Republic | 6.8 | 2.6% | 0% |
| 5 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 6.9 | 1.4% | 0% |
| 6 | Detroit City | 7.2 | 1.9% | 0% |
| 7 | Colorado Springs | 7.6 | 1.4% | 0% |
| 8 | Rhode Island | 9.2 | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 9 | Hartford Athletic | 10.4 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 10 | Charleston Battery | 10.5 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 11 | Lexington | 10.6 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 12 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 12.6 | 0% | 0.2% |
| 13 | Louisville City | 12.9 | 0% | 0.4% |
| 14 | Las Vegas Lights | 13.7 | 0% | 0.3% |
| 15 | Indy Eleven | 14 | 0.1% | 1.6% |
| 16 | Phoenix Rising | 14.1 | 0% | 0.9% |
| 17 | San Antonio | 16 | 0% | 2.3% |
| 18 | Orange County SC | 16.3 | 0% | 3.4% |
| 19 | Loudoun United | 17.1 | 0% | 5.9% |
| 20 | Sporting JAX | 18.4 | 0% | 9.8% |
| 21 | Brooklyn | 20 | 0% | 23.7% |
| 22 | Miami FC | 22 | 0% | 50.1% |
| 23 | Birmingham Legion | 22.2 | 0% | 54.8% |
| 24 | Oakland Roots | 22.2 | 0% | 54.1% |
| 25 | Monterey Bay | 24.3 | 0% | 92.4% |
阅读说明：我们使用基于历史结果构建的球队实力评级，将剩余赛季完整重演数千次。这些是概率，不是预测——我们的研究表明，任何模型都无法在单场比赛中战胜博彩市场。不过，放在完整赛季的尺度上，结果分布仍然具有参考价值。随着真实赛果不断出现，每周更新。
USL Championship 最尖锐的公开预测，就是剔除水位后的投注市场。我们发布的正是这个——每场 USL Championship 赛事的公允概率和公允赔率——并且只标记软性博彩公司定价失真的比赛。没有任何 tipster 能稳定战胜收盘线，我们也不假装可以。
我们发布的是 audit，不是 tips。对于每场 USL Championship 比赛，你都能看到公允价格和诚实的 value 检查；每条预测都会在开赛前记录，并在公开记录中结算，无论胜负。