44/100 · C TipsAudit 信任分 — 证据不足
Даниэль Даньков |Прогнозы и ставки на спорт| 已完成 17 条可验证推荐的审计。实测命中率:41%(声称:未说明)。平注 ROI:-20.8%。Closing line value:n/a。结论:跑赢收盘价。
@Betting_Russia77 · 641,000 订阅者
数字如何逐步收窄:47 从公开频道收集到的帖子 → 17 可与真实赛事实盘结算的唯一推荐 → 1 具有已验证收盘价的部分,只有在这部分上才能计算 CLV。
结论: 跑赢收盘价
此徽章实时读取本页面上的审计数据。记录变更时数字会变化,这正是它与营销贴纸的区别。任何在此被审计的人都可在任何渠道使用它,无需征求我们的许可。
| 日期 | 比赛 | 推荐 | 赔率 | CLV | 结果 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club MG — CRB Maceio · Brazil Serie B | OVER OU25 | 2.33 | — | 输 | |
| Henan — Qingdao Hainiu · China Super League | OVER OU25 | 1.88 | — | 赢 | |
| Ferencvaros — Vojvodina · UEFA Europa League | UNDER OU25 | 1.39 | — | 输 | |
| Derry City — CSKA Sofia · UEFA Europa League | OVER OU25 | 1.70 | — | 赢 | |
| Universitatea — Dynamo Kyiv · UEFA Europa League | OVER OU25 | — | — | 输 | |
| Spain — Belgium · World Cup | 1 1X2 | 1.90 | +13.8% | 赢 | |
| Spain — Belgium · World Cup | OVER OU25 | 1.90 | — | 赢 | |
| France — Morocco · World Cup | YES BTTS | 1.74 | — | 输 | |
| Switzerland — Colombia · World Cup | OVER OU25 | 2.32 | — | 输 | |
| Argentina — Egypt · World Cup | UNDER OU25 | 1.73 | — | 输 | |
| Argentina — Egypt · World Cup | OVER OU25 | 1.81 | — | 赢 | |
| Belgium — Senegal · World Cup | YES BTTS | — | — | 赢 | |
| Germany — Paraguay · World Cup | OVER OU25 | 1.87 | — | 输 | |
| Colombia — Portugal · World Cup | YES BTTS | 1.69 | — | 输 | |
| Panama — England · World Cup | OVER OU25 | 2.13 | — | 输 | |
| Switzerland — Canada · World Cup | UNDER OU25 | — | — | 输 | |
| Switzerland — Canada · World Cup | YES BTTS | 1.90 | — | 赢 |
信任分(0–100)仅基于可衡量内容计算:已验证推荐的 closing line value、已验证样本的规模和时间跨度,以及宣传主张与实际结果之间的差距。其设计刻意保守——如果没有足够多的已验证推荐,任何记录都不能被视为可信,无论表面看起来多好。大多数 tipster 的评分为 C(证据不足),因为大多数记录根本无法验证。要获得高分,需要数百个具有正 CLV 的已验证推荐;要得到 F,则需要主张与现实之间存在可测量的矛盾,而不只是结果差。
17 个已结算推荐只是很小的样本——远不足以证明任何能力。把本页上的任何百分比都当作天气,而不是气候。 为什么样本量很重要 →
We cannot say yet. Даниэль Даньков |Прогнозы и ставки на спорт| has 17 settled public picks in our audit; closing line value could be measured on 1 of them (—%), which is too few for a verdict either way. Trust score 44/100 (C). Treat any advertised ROI as unverified until the measurable sample grows.
Даниэль Даньков |Прогнозы и ставки на спорт|'s average CLV is —%, measured on 1 picks where we could compare the advertised price with Pinnacle's closing price on the same market. CLV above zero means the picks consistently beat the closing line; it is the only tipster metric that converges within a few hundred picks, unlike ROI.
We read 47 public picks from Даниэль Даньков |Прогнозы и ставки на спорт|'s channel. 17 were matched to a fixture and settled on the official result; 15 were on sports or leagues outside our coverage (not counted as failures); the rest could not be verified. Only settled picks enter the win rate and ROI — a tipster's own record is never taken at face value.
我们读取每个 tipster 公布的推荐,在开赛前按时间戳记录,关联到真实赛事,并以最终结果结算。命中率和 ROI 使用 tipster 报出的赔率。CLV 将其成交价格与 sharp 收盘价对比——这是与真实 edge 关联最强的指标。我们只统计可独立验证的推荐,并公布亏损。我们与任何 tipster 均无关联。
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