¿Qué casa se queda con la menor comisión? Calculamos el margen real 1X2 de cada casa que seguimos, a partir de 2,760 partidos cotizados en los últimos 30 días — medido con cuotas en vivo, no con afirmaciones de marketing.
Último cálculo:
| # | Casa de apuestas | Margen medio | Coste por 100 apostados | Partidos muestreados |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Betfair Exchange | -0.03% | −-0.03 | 1,051 |
| 2 | Matchbook | 1.74% | −1.74 | 572 |
| 3 | Coolbet | 5.43% | −5.43 | 699 |
| 4 | BetOnline.ag | 5.50% | −5.50 | 694 |
| 5 | GTbets | 5.51% | −5.51 | 303 |
| 6 | BetAnything | 5.82% | −5.82 | 247 |
| 7 | Marathon Bet | 6.23% | −6.23 | 723 |
| 8 | Everygame | 6.47% | −6.47 | 104 |
| 9 | Pinnacle referencia sharp | 6.48% | −6.48 | 2,374 |
| 10 | Unibet (SE) | 6.82% | −6.82 | 828 |
| 11 | Dafabet | 6.99% | −6.99 | 1,501 |
| 12 | Unibet (NL) | 7.14% | −7.14 | 816 |
| 13 | Codere (IT) | 7.32% | −7.32 | 737 |
| 14 | 1xBet | 7.60% | −7.60 | 2,331 |
| 15 | Betfair | 7.83% | −7.83 | 2,273 |
| 16 | Betsson | 7.97% | −7.97 | 716 |
| 17 | Nordic Bet | 8.01% | −8.01 | 724 |
| 18 | Tipico | 8.04% | −8.04 | 655 |
| 19 | Betano | 8.31% | −8.31 | 1,601 |
| 20 | Superbet | 8.63% | −8.63 | 1,187 |
| 21 | Suprabets | 8.83% | −8.83 | 246 |
| 22 | MyBookie.ag | 9.04% | −9.04 | 54 |
| 23 | 10Bet | 9.06% | −9.06 | 1,055 |
| 24 | Winamax (DE) | 9.24% | −9.24 | 685 |
| 25 | 888sport | 9.69% | −9.69 | 1,148 |
| 26 | Bet365 | 9.79% | −9.79 | 1,621 |
| 27 | Marathonbet | 9.90% | −9.90 | 1,623 |
| 28 | Unibet | 10.56% | −10.56 | 1,371 |
| 29 | William Hill | 10.58% | −10.58 | 2,264 |
| 30 | BetVictor | 10.98% | −10.98 | 1,387 |
| 31 | Winamax (FR) | 11.05% | −11.05 | 666 |
| 32 | LeoVegas (SE) | 11.12% | −11.12 | 842 |
| 33 | Betclic (FR) | 11.48% | −11.48 | 575 |
| 34 | PMU (FR) | 12.15% | −12.15 | 645 |
| 35 | Unibet (FR) | 12.26% | −12.26 | 727 |
| 36 | SBO | 14.73% | −14.73 | 1,041 |
El margen medio del mercado cambia según la liga — las ligas pequeñas te cuestan más. La 'casa más barata' es la casa de apuestas con el margen medio más bajo en esa liga (mín. 20 partidos).
| Liga | Margen medio del mercado | Casa más barata | Partidos muestreados |
|---|---|---|---|
| La Liga | 5.75% | Matchbook 1.47% | 31 |
| UEFA Champions League | 5.76% | 1xBet 1.78% | 36 |
| Premier League | 5.92% | Matchbook 1.21% | 30 |
| Ligue 1 | 6.01% | 1xBet 1.85% | 27 |
| MLS | 6.11% | Betfair Exchange 0.02% | 104 |
| Bundesliga | 6.16% | 1xBet 2.66% | 27 |
| Serie A | 6.19% | Matchbook 1.29% | 30 |
| Argentina Liga Profesional | 7.10% | Betfair Exchange -0.12% | 78 |
| Liga MX | 7.13% | Betfair Exchange -0.09% | 45 |
| Primera A | 7.25% | Betfair Exchange -0.05% | 55 |
| Championship | 7.44% | Betfair 1.01% | 57 |
| Czech Liga | 7.44% | Betfair Exchange -0.04% | 40 |
| Süper Lig | 7.52% | Coolbet 4.76% | 21 |
| Brazil Serie A | 7.64% | Betfair Exchange 0.03% | 59 |
| Eredivisie | 7.67% | Betfair 2.76% | 30 |
| Jupiler Pro League | 7.81% | Betfair 1.95% | 23 |
| Primera Division Chile | 7.84% | Betfair Exchange -0.08% | 42 |
| League One | 7.84% | Matchbook 1.15% | 49 |
| K League 1 | 7.87% | Pinnacle 3.53% | 36 |
| Brazil Serie B | 8.03% | Matchbook 2.16% | 34 |
| 2. Bundesliga | 8.05% | Pinnacle 3.57% | 23 |
| Scottish Premiership | 8.07% | Coolbet 5.81% | 22 |
| Romania Liga I | 8.08% | Betfair Exchange 0.01% | 40 |
| Superettan | 8.09% | Betfair Exchange 0.04% | 45 |
| Slovak Super Liga | 8.09% | Betfair Exchange 0.03% | 30 |
| Peru Liga 1 | 8.10% | Betfair Exchange 0.01% | 45 |
| Allsvenskan | 8.15% | 1xBet 6.69% | 20 |
| Bulgaria First League | 8.17% | Betfair Exchange -0.10% | 35 |
| Ligue 2 | 8.22% | Pinnacle 4.58% | 23 |
| Primeira Liga | 8.35% | Pinnacle 5.03% | 22 |
| League Two | 8.46% | Matchbook 2.05% | 48 |
| Croatia HNL | 8.55% | Betfair Exchange 0.04% | 25 |
| Primera Nacional | 8.63% | Betfair Exchange -0.04% | 96 |
| Hungary NB I | 8.63% | Betfair Exchange 0.02% | 24 |
| Ukraine Premier League | 8.70% | 1xBet 5.19% | 32 |
| Serie B | 8.72% | Matchbook 1.44% | 24 |
| Ekstraklasa | 8.75% | Pinnacle 5.17% | 24 |
| Segunda Division | 8.80% | Matchbook 2.10% | 25 |
| Norway 1. Division | 8.98% | Pinnacle 5.43% | 32 |
| K League 2 | 8.98% | Betfair Exchange 0.08% | 39 |
| Uruguay Primera Division | 9.03% | Betfair Exchange 0.06% | 39 |
| Slovenia PrvaLiga | 9.13% | Betfair Exchange 0.09% | 24 |
| Ecuador LigaPro | 9.17% | Betfair Exchange -0.17% | 47 |
| 3. Liga | 9.52% | Pinnacle 6.09% | 30 |
| Ykkonen | 9.55% | Betfair Exchange -0.12% | 24 |
| Kazakhstan Premier League | 9.61% | Betfair Exchange 0.02% | 39 |
| 1. Deild | 9.63% | Betfair Exchange 0.01% | 34 |
| Serbia Super Liga | 9.69% | Betfair Exchange 0.00% | 35 |
| USL Championship | 9.70% | Pinnacle 5.29% | 58 |
| Chile Primera B | 9.71% | Betfair Exchange 0.04% | 47 |
| Latvia Virsliga | 9.86% | Betfair Exchange -0.01% | 21 |
| Poland I Liga | 10.12% | Pinnacle 5.60% | 45 |
| Czech FNL | 10.31% | Dafabet 7.14% | 40 |
| Ykkösliiga | 10.34% | Pinnacle 5.70% | 25 |
| Urvalsdeild | 10.36% | Pinnacle 5.76% | 23 |
| Slovakia 2. Liga | 10.40% | Dafabet 7.11% | 40 |
| MLS Next Pro | 10.66% | Dafabet 7.04% | 80 |
| First Division Ireland | 10.78% | Pinnacle 5.23% | 20 |
| China League Two | 10.83% | 1xBet 10.29% | 31 |
| Latvia 1. Liga | 11.04% | 1xBet 10.50% | 22 |
| Primera B Metropolitana | 11.14% | Dafabet 7.20% | 53 |
| Bulgaria Second League | 11.24% | Dafabet 9.82% | 50 |
| Paraguay Division Intermedia | 11.35% | Dafabet 8.08% | 40 |
| Lithuania 1 Lyga | 11.43% | Betfair Exchange -0.24% | 40 |
| Hungary NB II | 11.56% | Dafabet 8.01% | 28 |
| Primera C | 11.67% | Dafabet 7.14% | 55 |
Para cada partido, tomamos los precios 1X2 más recientes de cada casa de apuestas desde nuestras propias capturas de cuotas, los convertimos en probabilidades implícitas (1 dividido por las cuotas) y las sumamos. Un mercado justo suma exactamente 100%; cualquier valor por encima de eso es el margen de la casa — la comisión incorporada que pagas en cada apuesta. Promediamos ese margen en todos los partidos que la casa cotizó en los últimos 30 días. Nadie nos paga por colocación y ningún acuerdo de afiliación reordena esta tabla: es aritmética sobre precios capturados, recalculada a diario.
El margen es el mayor coste controlable en las apuestas. Apostar con un margen del 7% en vez de 3% significa pagar más del doble de comisión en cada apuesta — una diferencia que ninguna habilidad de selección puede compensar de forma realista. Antes de preguntar '¿a quién debería apostar?', pregunta '¿cuánto me está cobrando esta casa?'