Plenty of sites show you a backtested ROI. A backtest can be re-fitted until it looks good — that is why we killed ~50 of our own models. Everything below runs the hard way: rules frozen first, then measured forward on live prices, wins and losses alike.
Thesis: the draw is systematically underpriced in Serie A and Serie B. Rules frozen and hashed before the 2026-27 season: back the X at Pinnacle opening odds ≤ 3.50, flat stakes, CLV measured same-book. Success and failure criteria declared in advance — the result gets published either way.
Pre-registered · SHA-256 + OpenTimestamps · starts with the 2026-27 season
Full details →Thesis: value signals can be executed at real exchange prices. A bot receives our live signals and simulates flat-stake bets at Betfair's actual best-back price — execution edge measured against the live devigged sharp benchmark at the moment of each bet.
212 settled simulated bets · 94 won · ROI +4.7% on 2811 units staked
Avg execution edge vs live sharp benchmark: +5.3% (102 bets)
Full details →Thesis: the value flags shown on this site — best soft price above the devigged sharp benchmark, edge ≥ 2.5% — are worth something. Every settled signal since June 2026, scored at the detection odds, flat stakes.
1299 settled signals · 640 won · flat-stake ROI +5.8% (± 6.3 pp at 95%) · avg CLV +9.4%
Full details →Small samples mean wide error bars — a positive ROI inside its confidence interval is a hypothesis, not a proof; we say so on every card. Full methodology, raw data and external timestamps are public. Where a strategy fails, the card stays up: the graveyard is part of the record.