🤖 预注册实验 · TIPS-EXP-002

实时实验:我们的 value signals 能否击败 Betfair?

一个投注机器人每 30 分钟将我们的公开 value signals 对照真实 Betfair 价格运行一次,采用冻结规则和公开账本——以 dry-run 模式进行,不涉及真钱。我们自己的模拟表明,交易所上的 edge 几乎为零。我们正在公开验证这一结论,并无论结果如何都会公布。

215
已记录投注
2078
已评估信号
+131.62
盈亏(模拟)
+6.2%
平均执行 edge
+6.8%
平均 CLV 对比收盘

冻结规则(摘要)

  1. 每个公开 value signal 在开赛前约每 30 分钟于 Betfair 复核一次。
  2. 只有当交易所价格在扣除 2% 佣金后仍提供 ≥2.5% edge,且流动性 ≥ 3×下注额时,才记录一笔投注。
  3. 在模拟的 1,000-lei 资金账户上采用半凯利下注;单注上限 5%,每日敞口上限 20%。
  4. Dry-run:实际上不投入资金。按真实结果结算,扣除佣金。
  5. 预先设定的晋级门槛:100+ 笔投注,平均执行 edge ≥2% 且 CLV 为正——否则该策略将被公开判定失效。
SHA-256 d004a6c52f17ecc008720ca5cd2383194b364740047e16613c992b886fad0475

查看冻结规范 → 在 GitHub 上验证(含 OpenTimestamps 证明) →

实时账本

自动更新。被跳过的信号和亏损会永久留在记录中。

比赛 推荐 赔率 Edge Score Stake 结果 P&L CLV
Pogoń Siedlce — Puszcza Niepołomice no market 1
Birmingham Legion — New Mexico United no market 2
Hangzhou Greentown — Wuhan Three Towns no market 1
Universidad de Concepcion — Huachipato no market 1
Coquimbo Unido — Huachipato edge too small 1 1.12 -28.1%
Nautico Recife — Operario-PR edge too small 1 1.99 -1.9%
Raków Częstochowa — Zaglebie Lubin edge too small 1 1.93 -1.4%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa — Nesebar edge too small 1 1.81 -1.5%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach — Verl edge too small 1 2.20 -3.0%
Rayo Vallecano — Espanyol edge too small 2 3.25 -3.7%
SSV Jahn Regensburg — Fortuna Düsseldorf no market 1
Würzburger Kickers — Alemannia Aachen edge too small 2 2.02 -4.0%
IK brage — Sandviken edge too small 2 2.38 -2.4%
Landskrona BoIS — GIF Sundsvall edge too small 1 1.40 -2.6%
CRB — Sport Recife 1 2.04 +5.1% 3.51 待定
Once Caldas — Deportes Tolima X 3.40 +10.0% 19.42 待定
Bahia — Remo edge too small 1 1.47 -0.7%
Banfield — Barracas Central edge too small 1 2.68 -1.1%
Deportes Santa Cruz — Recoleta edge too small 2 2.84 -1.5%
Moreirense — Maritimo edge too small 2 2.86 +0.8%
SC Braga — Estoril no market 1
Villarreal — Real Betis edge too small 1 2.04 +1.0%
Leeds — Newcastle edge too small 2 3.15 -4.2%
Leeds — Newcastle edge too small 1 2.44 -0.9%
Waterford — Derry City edge too small 1 2.76 -0.7%
RED Star FC 93 — Metz edge too small 1 2.44 -4.0%
Waterford — Derry City edge too small 2 2.66 +0.0%
Inter — Udinese edge too small 1 1.23 -3.3%
Dundalk — St Patrick's Athl. no market 2
RED Star FC 93 — Metz edge too small 2 3.10 -2.8%
Sligo Rovers — Galway United 1 3.95 +6.5% 6.15 -6.15 +5.9%
Celta de Vigo II — Eibar edge too small X 3.40 -2.2%
Rio Ave — Estrela edge too small 2 2.62 -1.0%
Rio Ave — Estrela 1 3.05 +4.5% 1.95 -1.95 +5.9%
Sirius — Degerfors IF edge too small 1 1.48 -2.9%
Gaziantep FK — Fenerbahçe edge too small 2 1.57 +0.7%
Djurgardens IF — Gais edge too small 1 1.51 -2.2%
FC Midtjylland — Brondby no market 1
Como — Parma edge too small 1 1.25 -0.7%
Torino — AS Roma edge too small 2 1.57 -3.2%
Shelbourne — Drogheda United 1 2.08 +8.0% 19.79 -19.79 +14.3%
Banga — TransINVEST Vilnius no market 2
Universitatea Cluj — Oţelul edge too small 1 1.63 +0.4%
Inter Turku — VPS edge too small 1 1.66 -5.7%
Shakhtar Donetsk — Chornomorets no market 1
Rīgas FS II — Skanste edge too small 1 1.74 -30.8%
Sligo Rovers — Galway United 2 2.40 +6.3% 11.85 +16.26 +22.4%
Guadalajara Chivas — U.N.A.M. - Pumas edge too small 1 1.57 -0.1%
San Diego — Philadelphia Union edge too small 2 2.24 -11.6%
Huracan — Racing Club edge too small 1 2.68 -7.3%
Huracan — Racing Club edge too small 2 3.25 -2.3%
Vancouver Whitecaps — Austin edge too small 1 1.31 -1.3%
Independiente — San Lorenzo edge too small X 3.05 -5.0%
Independiente — San Lorenzo edge too small 1 2.20 -0.8%
Fortaleza EC — Ceara edge implausible 1 2.36 +14.8%
Novorizontino — Cuiaba edge too small 1 1.65 -2.4%
Atletico Nacional — Águilas Doradas edge too small 1 1.42 -3.5%
Flamengo — Corinthians edge too small 1 1.27 -3.4%
Atletico Grau — Alianza Atletico edge too small 2 3.00 -2.3%
Atletico Grau — Alianza Atletico edge too small X 3.25 -1.8%

信号为何被拒绝

大多数价值信号不会变成下注:交易所价格不够好、流动性偏薄,或市场无法成交。关键在于纪律——凡信必下的机器人最终会亏损。

edge_too_small: 1241 no_market: 588 expired: 93 market_closed: 17 edge_implausible: 16 daily_cap: 1

为什么要 dry-run?因为我们自己的累积投注和资金管理研究表明,任何策略的诚实第一步,是在执行场所证明 edge 确实存在——在风险投入一分钱之前。如果通过门槛,真钱测试将成为一个单独、明确的决定。如果不通过,这一页就成为验尸报告。 阅读说明 →

有用吗?发给会下注的朋友。