World Cup

Mexico South Africa

Our verdict

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

The numbers

1 Mexico to win 67% · 1.43
Market probability (1 / X / 2) 67% / 22% / 11%
Our model (1 / X / 2) 53% / 26% / 21%
Pick 1 — Mexico to win (67%)
Fair odds (pick) 1.49
Market odds (Pinnacle) 1.43 / 4.42 / 8.78
Best soft odds (1 / X / 2) 1.44 / 4.75 / 10.00
Edge Score 0
Market Gap
Confidence
Status Won · 1

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

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