An audit, not a tipster.

What we do

We estimate the fair price of every outcome in the leagues we cover, compare it to what bookmakers actually offer, and flag only the matches where the offer beats the fair price by a measurable, plausible margin. Most of the time it does not — and we tell you to pass. We sell transparency and discipline, not excitement.

Why we publish everything

Every prediction is written to our database before kick-off; afterwards only two logged fields can change: a missing Pinnacle price, filled from the first one quoted after logging and before kick-off, and the kick-off time when a match is rescheduled. Value flags have been recorded with a sealed fingerprint since 26 September 2026; the earlier value history was rebuilt on that date after we found it overstated, and it is labelled as a reconstruction. Wins and losses sit side by side in a public ledger. We measure ourselves by closing line value — one of the strongest publicly measurable indicators that correlates with a long-term edge — not by a cherry-picked win rate.

What we are not

No guaranteed profit. No sure things. No VIP slips, no deleted losses, no pressure to chase. Betting carries real financial risk. Treat any edge as small and slow, stake only what you can afford to lose, and walk away when it stops being disciplined.

TipsAudit in numbers

• 8,372 football predictions logged before kick-off since 8 Jun 2026; 7,977 settled; the displayed pick won 72.2% of the time; average closing line value -0.9% (Pinnacle's own price when we logged it against its close, margin left in, which is why it sits near or below zero). Details →
• Value flags recorded live since 26 Sep 2026: 1,494 settled, average CLV at signal +1.6% (95% interval +1.1% to +2.1%). For the 82% of flags whose price we could re-check within 60 minutes, CLV at that price was +1.0%. The interval of CLV at signal excludes zero. Details →
• 9 public tipster channels tracked. Channels with at least 15 settled picks: 4; with a verdict (at least 30 picks with a measurable closing price): 1; beating the closing line with statistical confidence (a 95% interval above zero): 0. Details →
• Only about 1 in 4 of the Telegram tips we read can be checked at all: 446 of 1,561 (29%). The rest are combinations, bet builders or markets we do not audit (580), or tips we cannot tie to a real match before kick-off (525). Details →
• Bookmaker margins measured for 44 bookmakers on 3,361 matches in the last 30 days (simple average): lowest BetAnything at 4.94%, median 8.63%, highest Unibet (FR) at 16.16%. Details →
• Of the football prediction sites we measure with at least 30 settled predictions (8), 0 beat the closing line with statistical confidence (95% interval of closing line value above zero), 7 fell below it (interval below zero) and 1 cannot yet be told apart from it (interval includes zero). Details →
• Calibration on 7,934 settled matches (the same predictions as the track record; World Cup and Nations League excluded): the devigged sharp market scores a Brier of 0.598 and our own model 0.615 (lower is better), which is why we price against the market. Details →

As of 02 Nov 2026, 22:00 UTC; recomputed every 15 minutes from the live database. Methodology →

Operated by

TIPSAUDIT LLCNew Mexico Limited Liability Company

Jurisdiction

New Mexico, United States

Business ID

0008137886 Verifiable in the public New Mexico business register: New Mexico business search →

Company formed

17 October 2026

Business address

1209 Mountain Road Pl NE #12898, Albuquerque, NM 87110 This is a mailing address at our registered agent, Registered Agents Inc — not a staffed office. We are a remote operation and we would rather say so than imply a headquarters we do not have.

Publishing predictions since

8 June 2026 Every prediction since that date was logged before kick-off and is still on the record, winners and losers alike: Track Record →

Responsible for methodology and data

Ionut Stelian — Data Analyst The model, the devigging method and the data pipeline are built and maintained by Ionut Stelian. Legal responsibility for everything published sits with TIPSAUDIT LLC as operator. If a number on this site is wrong, that is the person and the company to hold to it.

General contact

contact@tipsaudit.com

Where the data comes from

Our own predictions never use anyone else's picks. To audit prediction sites, we read their public prediction pages every day before kick-off. Everything published here is computed from these sources:

• the-odds-api.com — bookmaker prices across the market, including the sharp benchmark used to derive fair odds.
• API-Football (api-sports.io) — fixtures, results, line-ups, player statistics and kick-off times.
• Betfair Exchange API — exchange back/lay prices, used as an alternative benchmark in leagues the sharp bookmakers do not price.
• Our own computation — margin removal, fair odds, value signals, CLV and every number in the track record are calculated in-house from the above. No third party supplies our verdicts.

The full method, including what we tested and what failed, is public: Methodology →

Corrections and right of reply

We do not overwrite the timestamped snapshots of our record: each daily snapshot stays in the public Git history, so a later change to a past row can be checked against it. Corrections we announce are listed, with their date and what changed, on the corrections page. When we rebuilt the value-flag history on 26 September 2026, the originally displayed prices moved out of the match pages; they remain in the dataset (best_soft_* columns) and in the daily Git snapshots, and the change is listed in the corrections file.

If we have audited you or your channel and you believe the data is wrong or incomplete, you have a right of reply. Send us the evidence and we re-run the audit. If the numbers change, we publish the corrected figures; if they do not, we publish that too, along with your reply where you want it on the record.

Corrections log →