The tournament is over. This page stays up as the record: the fair odds we published before each match, every value flag we raised, and what actually happened — kept unedited, including the calls that missed.
For matches being priced right now: Predictions today · Track Record
No value flagged at the moment — the market is pricing these matches tightly. That is the honest answer most of the time.
| Match | Score | Pick | CLV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain — Argentina | 1–0 | 1 Spain | +1.3% | Won |
| France — England | 4–6 | 1 France | +9.8% | Lost |
| England — Argentina | 1–2 | 1 England | +0.4% | Lost |
| France — Spain | 0–2 | 1 France | -6.5% | Lost |
| Norway — England | 1–2 | 2 England | -5.5% | Won |
| Spain — Belgium | 2–1 | 1 Spain | -1.8% | Won |
| France — Morocco | 2–0 | 1 France | -0.6% | Won |
| Switzerland — Colombia | 0–0 | 2 Colombia | -5.8% | Lost |
| Argentina — Egypt | 3–2 | 1 Argentina | +2.2% | Won |
| USA — Belgium | 1–4 | 1 USA | +2.3% | Lost |
| Portugal — Spain | 0–1 | 2 Spain | -4.0% | Won |
| Mexico — England | 2–3 | 2 England | -6.6% | Won |
| Brazil — Norway | 1–2 | 1 Brazil | +7.8% | Lost |
| Paraguay — France | 0–1 | 2 France | -2.5% | Won |
| Canada — Morocco | 0–3 | 2 Morocco | -1.6% | Won |
| Colombia — Ghana | 1–0 | 1 Colombia | +10.3% | Won |
| Argentina — Cape Verde Islands | 3–2 | 1 Argentina | -0.9% | Won |
| Australia — Egypt | 1–1 | 2 Egypt | +1.2% | Lost |
| Switzerland — Algeria | 2–0 | 1 Switzerland | +1.5% | Won |
| Portugal — Croatia | 2–1 | 1 Portugal | +5.8% | Won |
| Spain — Austria | 3–0 | 1 Spain | -4.4% | Won |
| USA — Bosnia & Herzegovina | 2–0 | 1 USA | +0.0% | Won |
| Belgium — Senegal | 3–2 | 1 Belgium | +8.1% | Won |
| England — Congo DR | 2–1 | 1 England | -1.5% | Won |
| Mexico — Ecuador | 2–0 | 1 Mexico | -4.8% | Won |
| France — Sweden | 3–0 | 1 France | -0.8% | Won |
| Ivory Coast — Norway | 1–2 | 2 Norway | -7.3% | Won |
| Netherlands — Morocco | 1–1 | 1 Netherlands | -9.5% | Lost |
| Germany — Paraguay | 1–1 | 1 Germany | +2.2% | Lost |
| Brazil — Japan | 2–1 | 1 Brazil | -5.0% | Won |
| South Africa — Canada | 0–1 | 2 Canada | -8.0% | Won |
| Algeria — Austria | 3–3 | 2 Austria | -32.8% | Lost |
| Jordan — Argentina | 1–3 | 2 Argentina | +1.7% | Won |
| Colombia — Portugal | 0–0 | 2 Portugal | +8.1% | Lost |
| Congo DR — Uzbekistan | 3–1 | 1 Congo DR | +25.0% | Won |
| Croatia — Ghana | 2–1 | 1 Croatia | -11.7% | Won |
| Panama — England | 0–2 | 2 England | +4.3% | Won |
| Egypt — Iran | 1–1 | 1 Egypt | -21.6% | Lost |
| New Zealand — Belgium | 1–5 | 2 Belgium | +0.8% | Won |
| Uruguay — Spain | 0–1 | 2 Spain | -10.7% | Won |
Every pick was logged before kick-off and is part of our public record. Track Record →
The headline probabilities come from the sharp betting market itself: we take Pinnacle-style odds and remove the bookmaker margin, which decades of research show is the most accurate public forecast of a football match. Our own statistical model runs alongside as a second opinion. We flag value only when a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price — and never on long shots, which our analysis of 32,000+ matches shows are systematically overpriced. Every prediction is logged before kick-off, never edited, and settled publicly in our track record — wins and losses alike.
The sharp betting market’s closing price with the margin removed is generally the strongest publicly available predictor of any football match. We tested this across tens of thousands of matches: no public model, AI or tipster was shown to consistently beat it. That is exactly what this page shows — the fair, margin-free probabilities for every World Cup match, updated as the market moves.
Rarely, and not by following “sure tips”. Bookmakers price major tournaments very efficiently. The realistic opportunities are small: a soft bookmaker occasionally lags the sharp market on a specific selection. We flag those moments when they happen — and tell you honestly when they do not, which is most of the time.
Because a tip without a price is meaningless. A bet is only good if the odds you take are higher than the true probability suggests. The fair odds show that true price, so you can judge any bookmaker offer — ours is an audit, not a tip sheet.
Every prediction on this site is logged before kick-off with the odds at that moment, never edited afterwards, and settled publicly — including the losers. You can inspect the full ledger on our track record page, with closing line value (CLV) for every pick.