World Cup

Qatar Switzerland

Our verdict

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

The numbers

2 Switzerland to win 78% · 1.23
Market probability (1 / X / 2) 8% / 14% / 78%
Our model (1 / X / 2) 33% / 26% / 42%
Pick 2 — Switzerland to win (78%)
Fair odds (pick) 1.28
Market odds (Pinnacle) 12.81 / 6.82 / 1.23
Best soft odds (1 / X / 2) 17.00 / 7.40 / 1.24
Edge Score 0
Market Gap
Confidence
Status Lost · X

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

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