World Cup

Haiti Scotland

Our verdict

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

The numbers

2 Scotland to win 62% · 1.56
Market probability (1 / X / 2) 16% / 22% / 62%
Our model (1 / X / 2) 47% / 27% / 27%
Pick 2 — Scotland to win (62%)
Fair odds (pick) 1.62
Market odds (Pinnacle) 6.06 / 4.29 / 1.56
Best soft odds (1 / X / 2) 6.60 / 4.40 / 1.60
Edge Score 0
Market Gap
Confidence
Status Won · 2

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Found this useful? Send it to a friend who bets.