World Cup

Netherlands Japan

Our verdict

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

The numbers

1/X Netherlands or draw 73% · 1.32
Market probability (1 / X / 2) 46% / 27% / 27%
Our model (1 / X / 2) 36% / 26% / 39%
Pick 1/X — Netherlands or draw (73%)
Fair odds (pick) 1.37
Market odds (Pinnacle) 2.10 / 3.56 / 3.61
Best soft odds (1 / X / 2) 2.12 / 3.70 / 3.95
Edge Score 0
Market Gap
Confidence
Status Won · X

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

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