World Cup

Spain Cape Verde Islands

Our verdict

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

The numbers

1 Spain to win 88% · 1.08
Market probability (1 / X / 2) 88% / 8% / 3%
Our model (1 / X / 2) 49% / 25% / 26%
Pick 1 — Spain to win (88%)
Fair odds (pick) 1.13
Market odds (Pinnacle) 1.08 / 11.68 / 28.46
Best soft odds (1 / X / 2) 1.11 / 14.50 / 48.00
Edge Score 0
Market Gap
Confidence
Status Lost · X

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

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