World Cup

Belgium Egypt

Our verdict

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

The numbers

1 Belgium to win 58% · 1.66
Market probability (1 / X / 2) 58% / 24% / 18%
Our model (1 / X / 2) 40% / 34% / 26%
Pick 1 — Belgium to win (58%)
Fair odds (pick) 1.72
Market odds (Pinnacle) 1.66 / 3.96 / 5.46
Best soft odds (1 / X / 2) 1.71 / 4.00 / 6.00
Edge Score 0
Market Gap
Confidence
Status Lost · X

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

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