World Cup

Saudi Arabia Uruguay

Our verdict

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

The numbers

2 Uruguay to win 66% · 1.46
Market probability (1 / X / 2) 12% / 22% / 66%
Our model (1 / X / 2) 37% / 29% / 35%
Pick 2 — Uruguay to win (66%)
Fair odds (pick) 1.52
Market odds (Pinnacle) 7.75 / 4.47 / 1.46
Best soft odds (1 / X / 2) 8.60 / 4.70 / 1.47
Edge Score 0
Market Gap
Confidence
Status Lost · X

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

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