World Cup

Iraq Norway

Our verdict

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

The numbers

2 Norway to win 80% · 1.21
Market probability (1 / X / 2) 7% / 13% / 80%
Our model (1 / X / 2) 38% / 26% / 35%
Pick 2 — Norway to win (80%)
Fair odds (pick) 1.25
Market odds (Pinnacle) 14.23 / 7.26 / 1.21
Best soft odds (1 / X / 2) 17.50 / 7.40 / 1.23
Edge Score 0
Market Gap
Confidence
Status Won · 2

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

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