World Cup

Argentina Algeria

Our verdict

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

The numbers

1 Argentina to win 68% · 1.41
Market probability (1 / X / 2) 68% / 21% / 11%
Our model (1 / X / 2) 50% / 27% / 23%
Pick 1 — Argentina to win (68%)
Fair odds (pick) 1.47
Market odds (Pinnacle) 1.41 / 4.56 / 9.05
Best soft odds (1 / X / 2) 1.43 / 4.90 / 9.80
Edge Score 0
Market Gap
Confidence
Status Won · 1

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Found this useful? Send it to a friend who bets.