World Cup

Czech Republic South Africa

Our verdict

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

The numbers

1/X Czech Republic or draw 77% · 1.22
Market probability (1 / X / 2) 49% / 28% / 23%
Our model (1 / X / 2) 52% / 25% / 23%
Pick 1/X — Czech Republic or draw (77%)
Fair odds (pick) 1.30
Market odds (Pinnacle) 1.93 / 3.30 / 4.07
Best soft odds (1 / X / 2) 2.02 / 3.45 / 4.37
Edge Score 0
Market Gap
Confidence
Status Pending

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Found this useful? Send it to a friend who bets.