World Cup

Switzerland Bosnia & Herzegovina

Our verdict

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

The numbers

1 Switzerland to win 59% · 1.58
Market probability (1 / X / 2) 59% / 24% / 18%
Our model (1 / X / 2) 56% / 24% / 20%
Pick 1 — Switzerland to win (59%)
Fair odds (pick) 1.70
Market odds (Pinnacle) 1.58 / 3.95 / 5.30
Best soft odds (1 / X / 2) 1.64 / 4.20 / 6.40
Edge Score 0
Market Gap
Confidence
Status Pending

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Found this useful? Send it to a friend who bets.