World Cup

Tunisia Japan

Our verdict

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

The numbers

2 Japan to win 56% · 1.66
Market probability (1 / X / 2) 18% / 26% / 56%
Our model (1 / X / 2) 29% / 26% / 45%
Pick 2 — Japan to win (56%)
Fair odds (pick) 1.78
Market odds (Pinnacle) 5.26 / 3.57 / 1.66
Best soft odds (1 / X / 2) 6.00 / 3.85 / 1.78
Edge Score 0
Market Gap
Confidence
Status Pending

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

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