World Cup

Uruguay Cape Verde Islands

Our verdict

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

The numbers

1 Uruguay to win 66% · 1.40
Market probability (1 / X / 2) 66% / 21% / 13%
Our model (1 / X / 2) 34% / 27% / 40%
Pick 1 — Uruguay to win (66%)
Fair odds (pick) 1.50
Market odds (Pinnacle) 1.40 / 4.45 / 7.36
Best soft odds (1 / X / 2) 1.50 / 4.90 / 8.60
Edge Score 0
Market Gap
Confidence
Status Pending

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

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