World Cup

New Zealand Egypt

Our verdict

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

The numbers

X/2 Draw or Egypt 79% · 1.19
Market probability (1 / X / 2) 21% / 24% / 54%
Our model (1 / X / 2) 24% / 24% / 52%
Pick X/2 — Draw or Egypt (79%)
Fair odds (pick) 1.27
Market odds (Pinnacle) 4.34 / 3.82 / 1.72
Best soft odds (1 / X / 2) 5.40 / 3.95 / 1.81
Edge Score 0
Market Gap
Confidence
Status Pending

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

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