World Cup

Jordan Algeria

Our verdict

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

The numbers

2 Algeria to win 64% · 1.45
Market probability (1 / X / 2) 14% / 22% / 64%
Our model (1 / X / 2) 20% / 21% / 59%
Pick 2 — Algeria to win (64%)
Fair odds (pick) 1.56
Market odds (Pinnacle) 6.56 / 4.25 / 1.45
Best soft odds (1 / X / 2) 7.50 / 4.70 / 1.56
Edge Score 0
Market Gap
Confidence
Status Pending

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

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