World Cup

Panama Croatia

Our verdict

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

The numbers

2 Croatia to win 59% · 1.57
Market probability (1 / X / 2) 15% / 26% / 59%
Our model (1 / X / 2) 47% / 23% / 30%
Pick 2 — Croatia to win (59%)
Fair odds (pick) 1.69
Market odds (Pinnacle) 6.16 / 3.65 / 1.57
Best soft odds (1 / X / 2) 7.29 / 4.35 / 1.60
Edge Score 0
Market Gap
Confidence
Status Pending

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

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