World Cup

Scotland Brazil

Our verdict

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

The numbers

2 Brazil to win 65% · 1.43
Market probability (1 / X / 2) 16% / 19% / 65%
Our model (1 / X / 2) 33% / 27% / 40%
Pick 2 — Brazil to win (65%)
Fair odds (pick) 1.54
Market odds (Pinnacle) 5.71 / 4.93 / 1.43
Best soft odds (1 / X / 2) 8.50 / 5.50 / 1.51
Edge Score 0
Market Gap
Confidence
Status Pending

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

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