World Cup

Czech Republic Mexico

Our verdict

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

The numbers

X/2 Draw or Mexico 79% · 1.18
Market probability (1 / X / 2) 21% / 27% / 53%
Our model (1 / X / 2) 37% / 25% / 38%
Pick X/2 — Draw or Mexico (79%)
Fair odds (pick) 1.26
Market odds (Pinnacle) 4.51 / 3.51 / 1.77
Best soft odds (1 / X / 2) 5.20 / 3.75 / 1.89
Edge Score 0
Market Gap
Confidence
Status Pending

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

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