World Cup

South Africa South Korea

Our verdict

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

The numbers

2 South Korea to win 60% · 1.56
Market probability (1 / X / 2) 16% / 24% / 60%
Our model (1 / X / 2) 29% / 25% / 46%
Pick 2 — South Korea to win (60%)
Fair odds (pick) 1.68
Market odds (Pinnacle) 5.66 / 3.90 / 1.56
Best soft odds (1 / X / 2) 6.25 / 4.40 / 2.08
Edge Score 0
Market Gap
Confidence
Status Pending

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

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