Changes we made on purpose to published data, newest first. Every earlier snapshot stays in the Git history, so each change below can be checked by comparing the snapshots it names.
2026-10-05 — TIPS-EXP-006 registered; how TIPS-EXP-005 actually executes
TIPS-EXP-006 registered (TIPS-EXP-006.md, SHA-256
7a5b74695fe5fdb0a5b838cdf707df6e4f8ecc354dcabd813c0cdec2ec85e492). A paper test of the public
value flags (rule flag-v2) at the soft bookmaker's own price, from 2026-10-05 07:20 UTC, decided at
300 takeable flags or on 2026-12-31. It runs in parallel with TIPS-EXP-005, which is unchanged.
TIPS-EXP-005, two executor behaviours its spec does not state. Both have applied since its first day and stay unchanged until it ends, so its rules do not change mid-test:
- between 2.5 and 3 hours before kick-off the executor requires 2 percentage points more edge than rule 4 states (a setting inherited from TIPS-EXP-003's executor);
- the half-Kelly stake (rule 5) is computed from the soft-bookmaker gap and price that triggered the signal, not from the Betfair edge at execution.
Daily exposure cap. The 20%-per-day cap compared days in server time (UTC+3) instead of UTC until today; it now uses UTC days. No TIPS-EXP-005 bet was affected: its largest daily exposure so far is 22 units against a cap of 200.
Strategy Board. From 30 September to 5 October the public Strategy Board and the admin summary still showed TIPS-EXP-003 instead of the running TIPS-EXP-005. Fixed; the AutoBet page itself was correct. Returns there are now shown only from 100 settled bets, as everywhere else.
2026-09-30 — backtest repaired, realizable CLV published, flag rule v2, TIPS-EXP-005
Backtest repaired. The reconstruction of value flags before 26 September 2026 had two
fidelity errors. It evaluated prices when a quote arrived but stamped the flag at the next
30-minute refresh, ignoring quotes that arrived in between. It also read logged_at before
2026-07-28 as UTC, although it was server time (UTC+3). Both are fixed, and the backtest was
re-run over the same matches: of 3,220 backtest flags, 2,919 are unchanged, 276 changed
(price, bookmaker, selection or time), 25 were withdrawn (kept in the database as
flag-v1-old, replay_corrected) and 3 were added. Changed rows have new seals; the previous
values remain in earlier snapshots.
Realizable CLV. A flag's CLV compares its price with the devigged Pinnacle close. That price could be hours old when the flag appeared. Next to it we now publish realizable CLV: the first price the same bookmaker quoted on the same selection after the flag was recorded, within 60 minutes and before kick-off, against the same close. Flags with no such quote are left out and the coverage is reported. After the repair (95% intervals):
- backtest flags: CLV at signal +1.85% (±0.27, n=3,199); realizable +0.79% (±0.54), coverage 932 flags (29%);
- live flags since 26 September: +0.50% at signal (n=16); realizable −0.07% (n=6) — too few to read;
- live Value Alerts (all candidates): +1.68% at signal (n=54); realizable +0.48% (n=21). Most of the backtest's CLV at signal came from prices that did not survive the next quote.
Flag rule v2 (from 2026-09-30 18:09 UTC). Exchange prices (Betfair Exchange, Matchbook) are
no longer treated as a soft bookmaker's best price: in the backtest they had CLV −0.32% (±0.65,
n=550) even before commission, against +2.29% (±0.30, n=2,649) at soft bookmakers. A flag now
needs a soft price and a Pinnacle price seen within the last 90 minutes. Flags recorded earlier
keep their rule (flag-v1); new ones are flag-v2. Value Alerts become va-v2 (Betfair
Exchange also excluded). A gap seen only on older prices is shown as "not re-checked", not as
value and not as expired.
AutoBet. TIPS-EXP-003 is closed as recorded (4 settled bets): the rule change would have
altered its trigger mid-test. TIPS-EXP-005 is registered with the new trigger (TIPS-EXP-005.md,
SHA-256 a1ece343cecdf81b055a34e385faf401603a82a2f0bf33f40155baa13950fb05).
2026-09-30 (erratum) — the 14 "late" predictions were logged before kick-off; void withdrawn
The entry below was wrong about the 14 predictions. Until 27 July 2026 our pipeline stored
logged_at in server time (UTC+3), not UTC. Read correctly, all 14 were logged 36 to 156 minutes
before kick-off. Their void was withdrawn the same day and their results count again, as before.
The 29 September note that called 13 of them "logged after kick-off" was wrong for the same reason.
For every row logged before 2026-07-28, logged_at_utc is server time: subtract 3 hours.
logged_before_kickoff now accounts for this. The part of the entry below about the 8 replay
flags stands.
2026-09-30 — late predictions voided; replay flags on unplayed matches superseded
- 14 predictions were written after kick-off by pipeline errors (13 on 2026-07-25, one on
2026-07-15; 13 of them are in this export). They are now void (
void_reason = logged_after_kickoff): their result is no longer scored and they are excluded from every figure. The rows stay in the export withlogged_before_kickoff = 0. - 8 value flags reconstructed on 2026-09-26 sat on matches that had not been played yet, which
blocked recording the live flag for those matches. They were withdrawn before kick-off (kept in
the database as
superseded_live, not deleted), so those matches are flagged live like any other.
2026-09-30 — TIPS-EXP-003: proposal step aligned with rule 1
Rule 1 of TIPS-EXP-003.md covers every public value flag. The step that turns flags into
proposals only picked up matches that already had a Pinnacle price when the prediction was logged.
Flags on matches where Pinnacle opened later (shown on the site from the live Pinnacle price) were
never proposed and are missing from the EXP-003 ledger — for example matches 7160 and 7648 on
28 September 2026. From 30 September 2026 they are proposed like every other flag; rule 2 (fresh
live fair price, otherwise skipped) applies to all of them. The frozen specification is unchanged,
and the missed signals are not added retroactively.
2026-09-29 — fields added, claims made precise
- Four fields were added at the end of every row:
value_origin(live|replay),value_recorded_at_utc,value_sealed_before_kickoffandlogged_before_kickoff. Existing columns keep their positions. - The note in each snapshot now states exactly what the row
hashcovers: id, match_id, league, home, away, kickoff_utc, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle 1X2 prices at logging and logged_at. It does not cover closing prices, results or anyvalue_*field. - 13 predictions logged on 2026-07-25 were written after kick-off because of a pipeline error.
They were in every snapshot since; they are now marked
logged_before_kickoff = 0. - When Pinnacle had no price at logging, the first Pinnacle price quoted after logging and before
kick-off is filled in later, sometimes after the match. Such a row first appears in the export
(and here) only once that price is filled in. The row
hashincludes those prices.
2026-09-26 — value-flag fields recomputed; flags before this date are a reconstruction
What changed. Between snapshots data/track-2026-09-26T04-40-01Z.json and
data/track-2026-09-27T04-40-01Z.json the value_* fields of 3,519 settled rows changed:
1,468 rows gained a value flag, 449 lost one, and the rest changed price, bookmaker or result.
The prediction fields and the hash of every row did not change, because that hash has never
covered the value_* fields.
Why. Until then, flags on settled matches were scored at the highest soft price logged for the match (before 21 September 2026, the highest price ever seen across all bookmakers, not necessarily one available at a given moment), and closing line value was measured against Pinnacle's raw closing odds, margin included. That overstated the result: the site showed +7.9% average CLV.
What the values are now. Every flag before 26 September 2026 was reconstructed on that day by
applying the current display rule to the prices stored before each match (value_origin = replay). This is a backtest, not a record of what the site showed at the time. Its seal
(value_commitment) was created at reconstruction, almost always after kick-off
(value_sealed_before_kickoff = 0), so it only shows that the reconstruction has not changed
since it was first published (snapshot 2026-09-27T04-40-01Z). Flags recorded live, when the site
shows them, start on 26 September 2026 (value_origin = live): the first flag on each match is
recorded, with its seal, before kick-off (value_recorded_at_utc). The seal appears in the public
export once the match's prediction row is published, and this log anchors it externally only when a
daily snapshot (04:40 UTC) falls between the recording and kick-off.