Fair odds are the odds a match would trade at if nobody took a cut: the true probability of an outcome, expressed as a price. If a team really wins a match 50% of the time, its fair odds are 2.00 — one divided by the probability. Anything below 2.00 is worse than the truth; anything above it pays more than the risk you are taking.
Bookmakers never quote fair odds. They shade every price downwards so that the implied probabilities of all outcomes add up to more than 100% — that extra slice is their margin. A typical 1X2 market at a recreational bookmaker adds up to 104–107%, which means the average bettor is paying 4–7% for the privilege of betting.
To estimate fair odds you need two things: a price source that is hard to beat, and a way to strip the margin out. We use the sharpest market available — bookmakers who welcome winners and let large stakes shape their prices — and remove the margin mathematically (devigging). The result is our best estimate of the true probability of every outcome.
Every number on TipsAudit starts from this estimate. A prediction is not "who we think wins" — it is the outcome the margin-free market considers most likely. And a value flag is never a hunch — it is a soft bookmaker quoting a price above our fair estimate.
See how we apply this on every match in our methodology. Methodology →
Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging Value bet Sharp vs soft bookmakers
See these ideas at work in our public track record — every call logged before kick-off, losses included.