Paraguay Division Intermedia

12 de Junio VH 3 de Noviembre

The sharp market makes 12 de Junio VH the most likely outcome at 63% — fair odds of 1.58. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — 12 de Junio VH: WWWLD; 3 de Noviembre: LLDDL.

Value check

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

Our prediction

1 Home win 63%
Market probability (1 / X / 2) 63% / 23% / 14%
Our model (1 / X / 2) 66% / 23% / 12%
Fair odds (pick) 1.58
Market odds (Pinnacle) 1.49 / 3.67 / 5.51
Best soft odds (1 / X / 2) 1.79 / 4.33 / 8.15
Edge Score 0
Market Gap
Confidence
Prediction result Won · 1

Match context

The last 1 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 0–1–0 (12 de Junio VH wins – draws – 3 de Noviembre wins).

12 de Junio VH scored 1.2 and conceded 0.8 across their last 5 matches in our results database; 3 de Noviembre scored 1.2 and conceded 2.4 in 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

12 de Junio VH has won its last 3 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on 12 de Junio VH here.
3 de Noviembre has lost its last 2 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on 3 de Noviembre here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

12 de Junio VH
W W W L D
avg 1.2 scored · 0.8 conceded (last 5)
3 de Noviembre
L L D D L
avg 1.2 scored · 2.4 conceded (last 5)
Recent head-to-head
04 Apr 2026 3 de Noviembre 1–1 12 de Junio VH

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

🔒 Immutable record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1 · Home win
Odds when logged 1.49
Closing odds 1.75
Prediction CLV -14.9%
Result Won
Record hash — integrity fingerprint 36c9f3c654ef035d

Logged before kick-off. The hash is an integrity fingerprint of the logged values — if any of them changed, the hash would change too. Verify in the public record →

The full record is published daily to an external, append-only public log (Git history + OpenTimestamps), so it is independently verifiable — not even we can rewrite a past record undetectably. Verify on the public log →

External independent verification has been active since 20 June 2026. Earlier records are preserved in our internal ledger but were not externally timestamped before kick-off.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

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