First Division Ireland

Finn Harps UCD

Our verdict

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

The numbers

X/2 Draw or away 75% · 1.24
Market probability (1 / X / 2) 25% / 25% / 50%
Our model (1 / X / 2) 38% / 28% / 34%
Pick X/2 — Draw or away (75%)
Fair odds (pick) 1.33
Market odds (Pinnacle) 3.80 / 3.67 / 1.87
Best soft odds (1 / X / 2) 3.75 / 3.65 / 1.90
Edge Score 0
Market Gap
Confidence
Status Won · 2

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

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