1. Deild

Leiknir R. Vestri

Our verdict

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

The numbers

1/2 Home or away 73%
Our model (1 / X / 2) 44% / 27% / 28%
Pick 1/2 — Home or away (73%)
Fair odds (pick) 1.38
Market odds (Pinnacle)
Best soft odds (1 / X / 2) 2.88 / 3.55 / 2.21
Edge Score 0
Market Gap
Confidence
Status Won · 1

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Found this useful? Send it to a friend who bets.