Paraguay Division Intermedia

12 de Junio VH Atlético Tembetary

The sharp market makes 12 de Junio VH the most likely outcome at 53% — fair odds of 1.87. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — 12 de Junio VH: DLWWL; Atlético Tembetary: LWWLL.

Value check

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

Our prediction

1/X Home or draw 79%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

Market probability (1 / X / 2) 53% / 26% / 21%
Our model (1 / X / 2) 60% / 22% / 18%
Fair odds (pick) 1.26
Market odds (Pinnacle) 1.74 / 3.32 / 4.03
Best soft odds (1 / X / 2) 1.78 / 3.80 / 4.78
Edge Score 0
Market Gap
Confidence
Prediction result Won · X

Match context

The last 1 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 1–0–0 (12 de Junio VH wins – draws – Atlético Tembetary wins).

12 de Junio VH scored 1.6 and conceded 1.6 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Atlético Tembetary scored 1.4 and conceded 2.4 in 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Why this price?

12 de Junio VH
D L W W L
avg 1.6 scored · 1.6 conceded (last 5)
Atlético Tembetary
L W W L L
avg 1.4 scored · 2.4 conceded (last 5)
Recent head-to-head
20 May 2026 Atlético Tembetary 0–1 12 de Junio VH

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

🔒 Immutable record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1/X · Home or draw
Odds when logged 1.14
Closing odds 1.14
Prediction CLV +0.0%
Result Won
Record hash — integrity fingerprint d5ece34585c8421b

Logged before kick-off. The hash is an integrity fingerprint of the logged values — if any of them changed, the hash would change too. Verify in the public record →

The full record is published daily to an external, append-only public log (Git history + OpenTimestamps), so it is independently verifiable — not even we can rewrite a past record undetectably. Verify on the public log →

External independent verification has been active since 20 June 2026. Earlier records are preserved in our internal ledger but were not externally timestamped before kick-off.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

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