Ecuador LigaPro

Barcelona SC Delfin SC

The sharp market makes Barcelona SC the most likely outcome at 58% — fair odds of 1.72. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Barcelona SC: DWLWD; Delfin SC: LWLLL.

Value check

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

Our prediction

1 Home win 58%
Market probability (1 / X / 2) 58% / 27% / 15%
Our model (1 / X / 2) 58% / 26% / 16%
Fair odds (pick) 1.72
Market odds (Pinnacle) 1.65 / 3.40 / 5.76
Best soft odds (1 / X / 2) 1.67 / 3.50 / 5.76
Edge Score 0
Market Gap
Confidence
Prediction result Pending

Match context

The last 3 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 3–0–0 (Barcelona SC wins – draws – Delfin SC wins).

Barcelona SC scored 1.2 and conceded 0.8 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Delfin SC scored 0.6 and conceded 1.2 in 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Why this price?

Barcelona SC
D W L W D
avg 1.2 scored · 0.8 conceded (last 5)
Delfin SC
L W L L L
avg 0.6 scored · 1.2 conceded (last 5)
Recent head-to-head
24 May 2026 Delfin SC 1–2 Barcelona SC
20 Jul 2025 Delfin SC 0–1 Barcelona SC
29 Mar 2025 Barcelona SC 2–0 Delfin SC

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

🔒 Immutable record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1 · Home win
Odds when logged 1.65
Closing odds pending
Prediction CLV
Result Pending
Record hash — integrity fingerprint 1413b50a7eee91e5

Logged before kick-off. The hash is an integrity fingerprint of the logged values — if any of them changed, the hash would change too. Verify in the public record →

The full record is published daily to an external, append-only public log (Git history + OpenTimestamps), so it is independently verifiable — not even we can rewrite a past record undetectably. Verify on the public log →

External independent verification has been active since 20 June 2026. Earlier records are preserved in our internal ledger but were not externally timestamped before kick-off.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

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