Primera A

Llaneros Deportivo Pereira

The sharp market makes Llaneros the most likely outcome at 58% — fair odds of 1.71. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Llaneros: LDLDW; Deportivo Pereira: LWLDL.

Value check

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

Our prediction

1 Home win 58%
Market probability (1 / X / 2) 58% / 26% / 16%
Our model (1 / X / 2) 50% / 28% / 22%
Fair odds (pick) 1.71
Market odds (Pinnacle) 1.60 / 3.61 / 6.01
Best soft odds (1 / X / 2) 1.64 / 3.60 / 6.00
Edge Score 0
Market Gap
Confidence
Prediction result Won · 1

Match context

The last 1 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 1–0–0 (Llaneros wins – draws – Deportivo Pereira wins).

Llaneros scored 0.4 and conceded 1.2 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Deportivo Pereira scored 0.6 and conceded 1.2 in 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Why this price?

Llaneros
L D L D W
avg 0.4 scored · 1.2 conceded (last 5)
Deportivo Pereira
L W L D L
avg 0.6 scored · 1.2 conceded (last 5)
Recent head-to-head
16 Jan 2026 Deportivo Pereira 0–2 Llaneros

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

🔒 Immutable record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1 · Home win
Odds when logged 1.60
Closing odds 1.63
Prediction CLV -1.8%
Result Won
Record hash — integrity fingerprint 354949a494efacaa

Logged before kick-off. The hash is an integrity fingerprint of the logged values — if any of them changed, the hash would change too. Verify in the public record →

The full record is published daily to an external, append-only public log (Git history + OpenTimestamps), so it is independently verifiable — not even we can rewrite a past record undetectably. Verify on the public log →

External independent verification has been active since 20 June 2026. Earlier records are preserved in our internal ledger but were not externally timestamped before kick-off.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

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