Colombia

Primera A predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every Primera A fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

How to read the table: colours, symbols and price times

How to read: 45% = fair chance, margin removed · 2.10 = best bookmaker price · bold % = most likely

2.35 Strong value = 3% or more above the fair odds · 2.35 Value flag = 1.5–3% · 2.35 Micro-edge = under 1.5%, monitor only · Value expired = a gap we flagged earlier that the market has since closed · Not checked yet = no fresh bookmaker or Pinnacle price to compare yet · Fair price only = reference competitions: the fair price only, no value check · ≈45% = fair price recorded earlier; no fresh Pinnacle price right now · XI = Starting line-ups confirmed · = add the match to My day (free account) · Bookmaker prices last updated between 12:08 UTC and 12:30 UTC · prices older than 6 hours may have moved: re-check at your bookmaker

Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row →

Upcoming matches: the best bookmaker price and the fair price for each outcome
Time	Match	1	X	2	Value
Tue · 01:15 UTC	BucaramangaAtletico Nacional	30% 3.20 fair 3.32	29% 3.38 fair 3.49	41% 2.25 fair 2.43	Value expired
Tue · 20:30 UTC	Deportivo PereiraDeportes Tolima	14% 7.00 fair 7.03	23% 4.05 fair 4.35	63% 1.53 fair 1.59	No value
Tue · 23:20 UTC	Deportivo PastoJaguares	58% 1.70 fair 1.73	24% 3.75 fair 4.17	18% 5.50 fair 5.50	No value
Wed · 23:30 UTC	CucutaSanta Fe	32% 3.10 fair 3.16	28% 3.34 fair 3.56	40% 2.35 fair 2.48	No value
Thu · 01:30 UTC	MillonariosAmerica de Cali	52% 1.87 fair 1.93	27% 3.50 fair 3.66	21% 4.50 fair 4.77	No value

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

Date	Match	Score	Market gave this result
01 Nov	Independiente Medellin – Alianza Valledupar	2–1	65%
01 Nov	Deportivo Cali – Chico	2–0	78%
31 Oct	Llaneros – Junior	3–2	36%
31 Oct	Bucaramanga – Deportivo Pasto	2–1	—
30 Oct	Deportivo Pereira – Jaguares	1–0	—
30 Oct	Atletico Nacional – Santa Fe	2–0	—
29 Oct	America de Cali – Fortaleza FC	2–1	—
29 Oct	Internacional de Bogota – Independiente Medellin	3–1	—
28 Oct	Once Caldas – Alianza Valledupar	1–0	—
28 Oct	Chico – Junior	1–1	—

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Bookmaker margins on Primera A

Across the matches we priced in Primera A, the market's average 1X2 margin is 8.09%. The cheapest bookmaker we track on this league is Betano at 4.88%. The margin is the fee you pay before any skill; it is the single biggest controllable cost in betting.

Betano → · Bookmaker Margin Index → · Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging →

Standings — 2026 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of Mon, 02 Nov · 05:35 UTC. We read it again after matches finish.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
Apertura
1	Atletico Nacional	19	13	1	5	35	15	+20	40
2	Junior	19	11	2	6	31	24	+7	35
3	Deportivo Pasto	19	10	4	5	29	25	+4	34
4	America de Cali	19	10	3	6	25	15	+10	33
5	Once Caldas	19	8	9	2	31	22	+9	33
6	Deportes Tolima	19	8	7	4	27	17	+10	31
7	Santa Fe	19	7	8	4	29	22	+7	29
8	Internacional de Bogota	19	7	7	5	26	26	+0	28
9	Deportivo Cali	19	7	6	6	20	16	+4	27
10	Millonarios	19	7	5	7	31	23	+8	26
11	Independiente Medellin	19	7	5	7	26	24	+2	26
12	Águilas Doradas	19	7	5	7	20	25	-5	26
13	Bucaramanga	19	5	8	6	26	20	+6	23
14	Llaneros	19	4	10	5	17	20	-3	22
15	Fortaleza FC	19	5	7	7	22	27	-5	22
16	Jaguares	19	5	3	11	20	33	-13	18
17	Alianza Valledupar	19	3	8	8	13	27	-14	17
18	Chico	19	5	2	12	15	32	-17	17
19	Cucuta	19	3	7	9	22	35	-13	16
20	Deportivo Pereira	19	1	7	11	15	32	-17	10
Clausura
1	Atletico Nacional	16	11	2	3	32	13	+19	35
2	America de Cali	16	10	4	2	31	12	+19	34
3	Deportivo Cali	17	9	6	2	26	10	+16	33
4	Bucaramanga	16	7	7	2	25	16	+9	28
5	Santa Fe	16	8	4	4	23	17	+6	28
6	Millonarios	16	6	8	2	24	14	+10	26
7	Independiente Medellin	17	8	2	7	25	25	+0	26
8	Once Caldas	17	6	6	5	21	18	+3	24
9	Águilas Doradas	16	5	7	4	21	20	+1	22
10	Cucuta	16	6	3	7	18	24	-6	21
11	Deportes Tolima	16	5	5	6	18	19	-1	20
12	Internacional de Bogota	17	4	8	5	21	23	-2	20
13	Llaneros	17	6	2	9	19	23	-4	20
14	Alianza Valledupar	17	5	3	9	17	29	-12	18
15	Deportivo Pereira	16	3	8	5	12	19	-7	17
16	Junior	17	3	7	7	23	27	-4	16
17	Chico	17	4	4	9	13	28	-15	16
18	Jaguares	16	3	4	9	17	29	-12	13
19	Fortaleza FC	16	1	9	6	17	24	-7	12
20	Deportivo Pasto	16	3	3	10	11	24	-13	12

Team stats this season

368 matches this season: 2.53 goals per game, 48% over 2.5, 54% both teams scored. xG 2.12 per match (from 253 matches); 9.0 corners and 5.9 cards per match (from 364 matches with statistics).

Team	MP	GF	GA	Over 2.5	BTTS	Clean sheets	xG for / against	Corners	Cards
Independiente Medellin	36	1.42	1.36	64%	67%	19%	1.20 / 1.07	9.1	3.2
Atletico Nacional	41	1.98	0.83	61%	44%	34%	1.48 / 0.76	9.3	2.7
Internacional de Bogota	38	1.29	1.53	58%	66%	18%	1.01 / 1.29	9.9	2.7
Jaguares	35	1.06	1.77	54%	54%	17%	0.80 / 1.32	9.8	3.3
Cucuta	35	1.14	1.69	51%	57%	23%	0.92 / 1.32	9.5	2.9
Fortaleza FC	35	1.11	1.46	51%	74%	20%	0.91 / 1.21	7.5	2.7
Junior	42	1.45	1.31	50%	57%	29%	1.18 / 1.14	10.1	3.0
Santa Fe	39	1.49	1.05	49%	67%	21%	1.09 / 0.88	8.8	2.6
Millonarios	35	1.57	1.06	49%	63%	31%	1.36 / 0.77	9.1	3.3
Bucaramanga	35	1.46	1.03	49%	60%	29%	1.00 / 0.95	8.0	2.9
Deportivo Pasto	37	1.08	1.41	49%	46%	30%	0.89 / 1.02	7.8	3.5
America de Cali	37	1.54	0.86	46%	43%	43%	1.09 / 1.06	8.3	3.0
Águilas Doradas	35	1.17	1.29	46%	60%	17%	1.06 / 1.04	9.2	2.8
Alianza Valledupar	36	0.83	1.56	44%	50%	22%	0.92 / 1.25	8.8	3.2
Chico	36	0.78	1.67	44%	25%	25%	0.68 / 1.28	9.0	2.9
Deportes Tolima	39	1.26	1.03	41%	51%	31%	1.23 / 0.76	9.3	2.8
Deportivo Pereira	35	0.77	1.46	40%	43%	26%	0.78 / 1.43	8.7	2.8
Once Caldas	38	1.42	1.13	40%	68%	21%	1.04 / 1.03	9.4	2.8
Llaneros	36	1.00	1.19	33%	50%	28%	0.96 / 1.24	10.0	3.3
Deportivo Cali	36	1.28	0.72	31%	42%	44%	1.02 / 0.81	8.8	2.9

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Predicted final table 2026/27 — 5,000 season simulations from our Elo ratings

#	Team	Avg. finish	P(title)	P(relegation)
1	America de Cali	2.4	35.4%	0%
2	Deportivo Cali	3.1	22.7%	0%
3	Atletico Nacional	3.3	17%	0%
4	Bucaramanga	3.5	17.8%	0%
5	Santa Fe	4.6	5.7%	0%
6	Millonarios	5.7	1.4%	0%
7	Deportes Tolima	7.6	0.1%	0%
8	Independiente Medellin	7.8	0%	0%
9	Cucuta	9.7	0%	0%
10	Águilas Doradas	11.3	0%	1.9%
11	Once Caldas	11.4	0%	1.2%
12	Llaneros	11.8	0%	3.9%
13	Internacional de Bogota	14.2	0%	12.6%
14	Chico	14.3	0%	15.4%
15	Junior	15.2	0%	26.7%
16	Alianza Valledupar	15.3	0%	23.8%
17	Fortaleza FC	16.7	0%	44.7%
18	Jaguares	17.1	0%	53.3%
19	Deportivo Pasto	17.2	0%	52.8%
20	Deportivo Pereira	17.7	0%	63.6%

How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best Primera A predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for Primera A is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every Primera A fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer Primera A betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each Primera A match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit