Primera A

Bucaramanga Llaneros

The sharp market makes Bucaramanga the most likely outcome at 61% — fair odds of 1.64. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Bucaramanga: WLDLW; Llaneros: WLDLD.

Value check

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

Our prediction

1 Home win 61%
Market probability (1 / X / 2) 61% / 25% / 14%
Our model (1 / X / 2) 46% / 28% / 26%
Fair odds (pick) 1.64
Market odds (Pinnacle) 1.58 / 3.67 / 6.17
Best soft odds (1 / X / 2) 1.58 / 3.75 / 7.00
Edge Score 0
Market Gap
Confidence
Prediction result Lost · X

Match context

The last 1 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 0–1–0 (Bucaramanga wins – draws – Llaneros wins).

Bucaramanga scored 1.8 and conceded 1.2 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Llaneros scored 0.4 and conceded 1.2 in 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Why this price?

Bucaramanga
W L D L W
avg 1.8 scored · 1.2 conceded (last 5)
Llaneros
W L D L D
avg 0.4 scored · 1.2 conceded (last 5)
Recent head-to-head
24 Jan 2026 Llaneros 1–1 Bucaramanga

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

🔒 Immutable record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1 · Home win
Odds when logged 1.58
Closing odds 1.58
Prediction CLV +0.0%
Result Lost
Record hash — integrity fingerprint f9f0ef619def21d9

Logged before kick-off. The hash is an integrity fingerprint of the logged values — if any of them changed, the hash would change too. Verify in the public record →

The full record is published daily to an external, append-only public log (Git history + OpenTimestamps), so it is independently verifiable — not even we can rewrite a past record undetectably. Verify on the public log →

External independent verification has been active since 20 June 2026. Earlier records are preserved in our internal ledger but were not externally timestamped before kick-off.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

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