China League Two

Tai'an Tiankuang Dalian Yingbo B

The sharp market makes Tai'an Tiankuang the most likely outcome at 55% — fair odds of 1.83. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Tai'an Tiankuang: LDWWL; Dalian Yingbo B: LLLDD.

Value check

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

Our prediction

1/X Home or draw 83%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

Market probability (1 / X / 2) 55% / 28% / 17%
Our model (1 / X / 2) 48% / 28% / 25%
Fair odds (pick) 1.21
Market odds (Pinnacle) 1.72 / 3.13 / 4.89
Best soft odds (1 / X / 2) 2.10 / 3.25 / 5.16
Edge Score 0
Market Gap
Confidence
Prediction result Won · X

Match context

The last 1 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 1–0–0 (Tai'an Tiankuang wins – draws – Dalian Yingbo B wins).

Tai'an Tiankuang scored 1.4 and conceded 1.4 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Dalian Yingbo B scored 0.4 and conceded 1.2 in 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Dalian Yingbo B has lost its last 3 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Dalian Yingbo B here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Tai'an Tiankuang
L D W W L
avg 1.4 scored · 1.4 conceded (last 5)
Dalian Yingbo B
L L L D D
avg 0.4 scored · 1.2 conceded (last 5)
Recent head-to-head
22 May 2026 Dalian Yingbo B 0–1 Tai'an Tiankuang

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

🔒 Immutable record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1/X · Home or draw
Odds when logged 1.11
Closing odds 1.17
Prediction CLV -5.3%
Result Won
Record hash — integrity fingerprint 2b0ce03d4a164a7d

Logged before kick-off. The hash is an integrity fingerprint of the logged values — if any of them changed, the hash would change too. Verify in the public record →

The full record is published daily to an external, append-only public log (Git history + OpenTimestamps), so it is independently verifiable — not even we can rewrite a past record undetectably. Verify on the public log →

External independent verification has been active since 20 June 2026. Earlier records are preserved in our internal ledger but were not externally timestamped before kick-off.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

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