Defensor Sporting — Liverpool Montevideo
The sharp market makes Defensor Sporting the most likely outcome at 35% — fair odds of 2.85. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Defensor Sporting: LWLDD; Liverpool Montevideo: WDWLD.
Value check
No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.
Our prediction
When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).
Match context
The last 4 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 2–0–2 (Defensor Sporting wins – draws – Liverpool Montevideo wins).
Defensor Sporting scored 1 and conceded 1.2 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Liverpool Montevideo scored 0.8 and conceded 0.6 in 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
🔒 Immutable record
Logged before kick-off. The hash is an integrity fingerprint of the logged values — if any of them changed, the hash would change too. Verify in the public record →
The full record is published daily to an external, append-only public log (Git history + OpenTimestamps), so it is independently verifiable — not even we can rewrite a past record undetectably. Verify on the public log →
External independent verification has been active since 20 June 2026. Earlier records are preserved in our internal ledger but were not externally timestamped before kick-off.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.