Uruguay

Uruguay Primera Division predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every Uruguay Primera Division fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

No match has a fair price yet. Fair prices appear once Pinnacle prices a match, usually about a week before kick-off.

Scheduled matches

Sat · 13:00 UTC Racing Montevideo – Cerro Largo
Sat · 16:00 UTC Cerro – Central Espanol
Sat · 19:30 UTC Penarol – Wanderers
Sun · 13:00 UTC Progreso – Defensor Sporting
Sun · 16:00 UTC Boston River – Atletico Torque
Sun · 19:30 UTC Danubio – Club Nacional
Sun · 23:00 UTC Albion FC – Deportivo Maldonado
Mon · 23:00 UTC Liverpool Montevideo – Juventud

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

Date	Match	Score	Market gave this result
25 Oct	Club Nacional – Liverpool Montevideo	0–1	26%
25 Oct	Cerro Largo – Boston River	2–0	34%
25 Oct	Atletico Torque – Cerro	3–1	63%
25 Oct	Wanderers – Progreso	0–1	28%
24 Oct	Deportivo Maldonado – Danubio	2–1	52%
24 Oct	Defensor Sporting – Racing Montevideo	3–3	30%
24 Oct	Central Espanol – Albion FC	1–3	37%
23 Oct	Juventud – Penarol	0–0	28%
19 Oct	Club Nacional – Deportivo Maldonado	3–2	52%
18 Oct	Liverpool Montevideo – Penarol	1–0	29%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Bookmaker margins on Uruguay Primera Division

Across the matches we priced in Uruguay Primera Division, the market's average 1X2 margin is 9.87%. The cheapest bookmaker we track on this league is Pinnacle at 5.00%. The margin is the fee you pay before any skill; it is the single biggest controllable cost in betting.

Pinnacle → · Bookmaker Margin Index → · Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging →

Standings — 2026 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of Tue, 27 Oct · 05:35 UTC. We read it again after matches finish.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
Primera: Apertura
1	Racing Montevideo	15	9	4	2	23	14	+9	31
2	Deportivo Maldonado	15	9	2	4	24	16	+8	29
3	Albion FC	15	8	4	3	26	16	+10	28
4	Penarol	15	8	3	4	23	16	+7	27
5	Central Espanol	15	7	3	5	23	22	+1	24
6	Atletico Torque	15	6	5	4	22	16	+6	23
7	Club Nacional	15	7	1	7	26	21	+5	22
8	Defensor Sporting	15	5	6	4	13	11	+2	21
9	Liverpool Montevideo	15	5	5	5	20	18	+2	20
10	Wanderers	15	6	2	7	16	21	-5	20
11	Danubio	15	4	6	5	17	21	-4	18
12	Cerro Largo	15	5	2	8	16	19	-3	17
13	Boston River	15	5	2	8	14	20	-6	17
14	Juventud	15	4	3	8	17	22	-5	15
15	Progreso	15	2	4	9	12	23	-11	10
16	Cerro	15	2	4	9	8	24	-16	10
Primera: Clausura
1	Liverpool Montevideo	12	8	3	1	20	8	+12	27
2	Atletico Torque	12	8	1	3	24	13	+11	25
3	Club Nacional	12	7	2	3	17	12	+5	23
4	Deportivo Maldonado	12	6	3	3	18	10	+8	21
5	Penarol	12	6	4	2	16	8	+8	21
6	Progreso	12	6	1	5	13	13	+0	19
7	Juventud	12	4	6	2	12	8	+4	18
8	Cerro	12	5	3	4	14	17	-3	18
9	Racing Montevideo	12	4	4	4	15	13	+2	16
10	Boston River	12	4	3	5	14	15	-1	15
11	Wanderers	12	4	3	5	13	18	-5	15
12	Albion FC	12	4	0	8	15	20	-5	12
13	Danubio	12	2	4	6	6	13	-7	10
14	Cerro Largo	12	1	6	5	9	14	-5	9
15	Defensor Sporting	12	2	3	7	14	23	-9	9
16	Central Espanol	12	1	2	9	6	21	-15	5
Primera: Promedios
1	Penarol	71	43	14	14	117	61	+56	143
2	Club Nacional	71	42	14	15	127	74	+53	137
3	Deportivo Maldonado	34	18	8	8	54	32	+22	62
4	Liverpool Montevideo	71	33	22	16	96	68	+28	121
5	Racing Montevideo	71	29	23	19	81	68	+13	110
6	Atletico Torque	71	31	16	24	111	91	+20	109
7	Juventud	71	28	18	25	82	80	+2	102
8	Defensor Sporting	71	26	19	26	75	81	-6	97
9	Albion FC	34	13	7	14	47	44	+3	46
10	Boston River	71	24	20	27	83	84	-1	92
11	Cerro Largo	71	21	23	27	73	79	-6	86
12	Cerro	71	22	18	31	61	93	-32	83
13	Wanderers	71	20	21	30	66	90	-24	81
14	Central Espanol	34	10	8	16	33	47	-14	38
15	Danubio	71	16	27	28	69	84	-15	75
16	Progreso	71	20	14	37	69	107	-38	74
Primera: Tabla Anual
1	Penarol	34	19	8	7	51	27	+24	64
2	Deportivo Maldonado	34	18	8	8	54	32	+22	62
3	Atletico Torque	34	18	6	10	57	40	+17	60
4	Club Nacional	34	18	4	12	51	41	+10	58
5	Racing Montevideo	34	15	12	7	42	30	+12	57
6	Liverpool Montevideo	34	15	11	8	45	31	+14	56
7	Wanderers	34	14	8	12	41	43	-2	50
8	Albion FC	34	13	7	14	47	44	+3	46
9	Juventud	34	10	11	13	37	41	-4	41
10	Central Espanol	34	10	8	16	33	47	-14	38
11	Cerro Largo	34	9	10	15	32	38	-6	37
12	Boston River	34	10	7	17	33	45	-12	37
13	Cerro	34	10	7	17	28	51	-23	37
14	Defensor Sporting	34	8	12	14	33	43	-10	36
15	Progreso	34	10	5	19	31	47	-16	35
16	Danubio	34	6	14	14	28	43	-15	32
Primera: Torneo Intermedio
1	Penarol	7	5	1	1	12	3	+9	16
1	Wanderers	7	4	3	0	12	4	+8	15
2	Cerro Largo	7	3	2	2	7	5	+2	11
2	Club Nacional	7	4	1	2	8	8	+0	13
3	Racing Montevideo	7	2	4	1	4	3	+1	10
3	Deportivo Maldonado	7	3	3	1	12	6	+6	12
4	Liverpool Montevideo	7	2	3	2	5	5	+0	9
4	Atletico Torque	7	4	0	3	11	11	+0	12
5	Central Espanol	7	2	3	2	4	4	+0	9
5	Juventud	7	2	2	3	8	11	-3	8
6	Cerro	7	3	0	4	6	10	-4	9
6	Albion FC	7	1	3	3	6	8	-2	6
7	Defensor Sporting	7	1	3	3	6	9	-3	6
7	Progreso	7	2	0	5	6	11	-5	6
8	Boston River	7	1	2	4	5	10	-5	5
8	Danubio	7	0	4	3	5	9	-4	4

Team stats this season

272 matches this season: 2.36 goals per game, 44% over 2.5, 50% both teams scored. xG — per match (from 0 matches); 8.6 corners and 6.1 cards per match (from 32 matches with statistics).

Team	MP	GF	GA	Over 2.5	BTTS	Clean sheets	Corners	Cards
Albion FC	34	1.38	1.29	59%	62%	21%	8.5	2.3
Atletico Torque	34	1.68	1.18	56%	65%	21%	9.0	3.3
Club Nacional	34	1.50	1.21	56%	53%	32%	12.0	3.5
Central Espanol	34	0.97	1.38	50%	47%	29%	8.3	2.3
Wanderers	34	1.21	1.26	47%	50%	35%	10.0	3.0
Deportivo Maldonado	34	1.59	0.94	44%	50%	41%	9.5	2.3
Penarol	34	1.50	0.79	44%	50%	35%	7.8	4.0
Boston River	34	0.97	1.32	44%	47%	21%	5.8	3.3
Liverpool Montevideo	34	1.32	0.91	41%	44%	47%	8.5	3.8
Juventud	34	1.09	1.21	41%	53%	29%	9.5	2.8
Progreso	34	0.91	1.38	41%	44%	18%	9.0	2.3
Cerro	34	0.82	1.50	41%	47%	21%	7.0	4.3
Danubio	34	0.82	1.26	38%	47%	24%	9.3	3.0
Defensor Sporting	34	0.97	1.26	35%	56%	24%	6.5	3.5
Racing Montevideo	34	1.24	0.88	32%	44%	41%	9.3	2.8
Cerro Largo	34	0.94	1.12	29%	41%	27%	7.3	2.8

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best Uruguay Primera Division predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for Uruguay Primera Division is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every Uruguay Primera Division fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer Uruguay Primera Division betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each Uruguay Primera Division match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit