Premier Division

St Patrick's Athl. Drogheda United

Our verdict

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

The numbers

1 Home win 69% · 1.36
Market probability (1 / X / 2) 69% / 20% / 11%
Our model (1 / X / 2) 61% / 24% / 16%
Pick 1 — Home win (69%)
Fair odds (pick) 1.45
Market odds (Pinnacle) 1.36 / 4.76 / 8.51
Best soft odds (1 / X / 2) 1.36 / 5.00 / 10.00
Edge Score 0
Market Gap
Confidence
Status Won · 1

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Found this useful? Send it to a friend who bets.