Ireland

Premier Division predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every Premier Division fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

No upcoming audited matches in this league right now. The audit runs continuously — check back soon.

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

Date	Match	Score	Market gave this result
30 Oct	Shelbourne – Waterford	2–3	27%
30 Oct	Drogheda United – Galway United	2–0	50%
30 Oct	St Patrick's Athl. – Bohemians	2–3	21%
30 Oct	Sligo Rovers – Derry City	2–2	25%
30 Oct	Dundalk – Shamrock Rovers	3–1	24%
23 Oct	Shamrock Rovers – Sligo Rovers	4–0	88%
23 Oct	Galway United – St Patrick's Athl.	0–0	23%
23 Oct	Waterford – Drogheda United	3–1	55%
23 Oct	Bohemians – Shelbourne	0–1	19%
23 Oct	Derry City – Dundalk	2–1	57%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Bookmaker margins on Premier Division

Across the matches we priced in Premier Division, the market's average 1X2 margin is 9.11%. The cheapest bookmaker we track on this league is Pinnacle at 4.26%. The margin is the fee you pay before any skill; it is the single biggest controllable cost in betting.

Pinnacle → · Bookmaker Margin Index → · Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging →

Standings — 2026 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of Sun, 01 Nov · 05:35 UTC. We read it again after matches finish.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Shamrock Rovers	36	20	8	8	59	38	+21	68
2	Bohemians	36	19	8	9	63	44	+19	65
3	St Patrick's Athl.	36	17	9	10	55	31	+24	60
4	Shelbourne	36	12	13	11	52	50	+2	49
5	Derry City	36	11	15	10	50	47	+3	48
6	Dundalk	36	11	12	13	55	59	-4	45
7	Waterford	36	10	13	13	54	61	-7	43
8	Galway United	36	10	12	14	46	53	-7	42
9	Drogheda United	36	10	10	16	44	57	-13	40
10	Sligo Rovers	36	5	10	21	28	66	-38	25

Team stats this season

180 matches this season: 2.81 goals per game, 53% over 2.5, 61% both teams scored. xG 2.70 per match (from 108 matches); 10.2 corners and 4.4 cards per match (from 176 matches with statistics).

Team	MP	GF	GA	Over 2.5	BTTS	Clean sheets	xG for / against	Corners	Cards
Bohemians	36	1.75	1.22	64%	67%	31%	1.59 / 1.04	9.9	1.9
Dundalk	36	1.53	1.64	64%	78%	14%	1.54 / 1.60	10.2	2.4
Shelbourne	36	1.44	1.39	61%	72%	19%	1.29 / 1.35	9.6	3.0
Waterford	36	1.50	1.69	53%	64%	17%	1.49 / 1.59	11.5	2.1
Drogheda United	36	1.22	1.58	53%	58%	31%	1.07 / 1.60	10.6	1.9
Shamrock Rovers	36	1.64	1.06	50%	56%	33%	1.42 / 1.27	8.7	2.4
Derry City	36	1.39	1.31	50%	61%	28%	1.25 / 1.12	10.1	2.7
Sligo Rovers	36	0.78	1.83	50%	47%	17%	1.00 / 1.60	10.9	1.9
Galway United	36	1.28	1.47	47%	64%	14%	0.69 / 1.36	10.0	2.0
St Patrick's Athl.	36	1.53	0.86	36%	39%	39%	1.61 / 0.98	10.2	1.6

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Predicted final table 2026/27 — 5,000 season simulations from our Elo ratings

#	Team	Avg. finish	P(title)	P(relegation)
1	Shamrock Rovers	3.8	21%	4.7%
2	St Patrick's Athl.	3.8	20.3%	4.5%
3	Bohemians	4.2	15.5%	5.6%
4	Waterford	4.6	12.2%	8.1%
5	Galway United	5	12.1%	11.5%
6	Shelbourne	5.2	8.7%	13.3%
7	Drogheda United	5.7	5.7%	16.5%
8	Derry City	7	2.2%	34.5%
9	Dundalk	7.5	1.6%	43%
10	Sligo Rovers	8.3	0.7%	58.2%

How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best Premier Division predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for Premier Division is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every Premier Division fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer Premier Division betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each Premier Division match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit