First Division Ireland

Kerry Athlone Town

Our verdict

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

The numbers

1/2 Home or away 72% · 1.30
Market probability (1 / X / 2) 43% / 28% / 29%
Our model (1 / X / 2) 38% / 28% / 34%
Pick 1/2 — Home or away (72%)
Fair odds (pick) 1.39
Market odds (Pinnacle) 2.19 / 3.34 / 3.22
Best soft odds (1 / X / 2) 2.27 / 3.30 / 3.16
Edge Score 0
Market Gap
Confidence
Status Won · 1

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

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