Ireland

First Division Ireland predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every First Division Ireland fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

No upcoming audited matches in this league right now. The audit runs continuously — check back soon.

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

Date	Match	Score	Market gave this result
01 Nov	Bray Wanderers – UCD	1–3	29%
27 Oct	UCD – Longford Town	2–0	50%
27 Oct	Bray Wanderers – Kerry FC	3–0	—
24 Oct	Kerry FC – Bray Wanderers	1–2	—
24 Oct	Longford Town – UCD	0–2	41%
16 Oct	Treaty United – Cobh Ramblers	2–0	23%
16 Oct	Kerry – Cork City	1–1	29%
16 Oct	Wexford – UCD	2–5	36%
16 Oct	Longford Town – Athlone Town	1–0	36%
16 Oct	Finn Harps – Bray Wanderers	2–0	14%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Standings — 2026 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of Mon, 02 Nov · 05:35 UTC. We read it again after matches finish.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Cork City	36	23	6	7	74	35	+39	75
2	UCD	36	16	8	12	67	51	+16	56
3	Bray Wanderers	36	15	9	12	67	53	+14	54
4	Kerry FC	36	14	10	12	45	41	+4	52
5	Longford Town	36	14	10	12	49	46	+3	52
6	Cobh Ramblers	36	14	7	15	46	54	-8	49
7	Athlone Town	36	13	9	14	42	43	-1	48
8	Wexford	36	11	9	16	44	58	-14	42
9	Treaty United	36	11	9	16	37	53	-16	42
10	Finn Harps	36	7	7	22	33	70	-37	28

Team stats this season

185 matches this season: 2.80 goals per game, 54% over 2.5, 53% both teams scored.

Team	MP	GF	GA	Over 2.5	BTTS	Clean sheets
Bray Wanderers	39	1.87	1.46	69%	67%	21%
UCD	39	1.90	1.33	59%	56%	36%
Finn Harps	36	0.92	1.94	58%	50%	14%
Wexford	36	1.22	1.61	56%	56%	19%
Cork City	36	2.06	0.97	53%	53%	42%
Treaty United	36	1.03	1.47	53%	42%	25%
Cobh Ramblers	36	1.28	1.50	50%	50%	22%
Kerry	36	1.25	1.14	47%	56%	28%
Athlone Town	36	1.17	1.19	47%	47%	28%
Longford Town	38	1.29	1.32	45%	53%	26%

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Predicted final table 2026/27 — 5,000 season simulations from our Elo ratings

#	Team	Avg. finish	P(title)	P(relegation)
1	Bray Wanderers	2.8	34.5%	1.2%
2	Cork City	4	16.5%	4.6%
3	Treaty United	4.1	13.9%	4.1%
4	Kerry	4.2	13.8%	5.4%
5	Longford Town	4.2	13.1%	4.8%
6	Wexford	6.5	2.7%	25.2%
7	Athlone Town	6.6	2.1%	27.1%
8	Cobh Ramblers	6.6	2.2%	27.2%
9	UCD	7.2	0.9%	34.9%
10	Finn Harps	8.6	0.3%	65.6%

How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best First Division Ireland predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for First Division Ireland is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every First Division Ireland fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer First Division Ireland betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each First Division Ireland match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit