First Division Ireland

Wexford Cork City

Our verdict

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

The numbers

X/2 Draw or away 78% · 1.20
Market probability (1 / X / 2) 22% / 26% / 51%
Our model (1 / X / 2) 30% / 29% / 41%
Pick X/2 — Draw or away (78%)
Fair odds (pick) 1.29
Market odds (Pinnacle) 4.19 / 3.56 / 1.82
Best soft odds (1 / X / 2) 4.20 / 3.60 / 1.83
Edge Score 0
Market Gap
Confidence
Status Won · 2

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

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