Superettan

Norrby IF Landskrona BoIS

The sharp market makes Landskrona BoIS the most likely outcome at 42% — fair odds of 2.36. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Norrby IF: LDLWD; Landskrona BoIS: DDDWL.

Value check

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

Our prediction

1/2 Home or away 74%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

Market probability (1 / X / 2) 31% / 26% / 42%
Our model (1 / X / 2) 40% / 29% / 31%
Fair odds (pick) 1.36
Market odds (Pinnacle) 2.98 / 3.52 / 2.25
Best soft odds (1 / X / 2) 2.96 / 3.60 / 2.35
Edge Score 0
Market Gap
Confidence
Prediction result Won · 2

Match context

The last 1 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 0–1–0 (Norrby IF wins – draws – Landskrona BoIS wins).

Norrby IF scored 0.8 and conceded 1 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Landskrona BoIS scored 1 and conceded 1 in 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Why this price?

Norrby IF
L D L W D
avg 0.8 scored · 1 conceded (last 5)
Landskrona BoIS
D D D W L
avg 1 scored · 1 conceded (last 5)
Recent head-to-head
12 May 2026 Landskrona BoIS 1–1 Norrby IF

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

🔒 Immutable record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1/2 · Home or away
Odds when logged 1.28
Closing odds 1.31
Prediction CLV -2.0%
Result Won
Record hash — integrity fingerprint 7fb199b6f4da8d64

Logged before kick-off. The hash is an integrity fingerprint of the logged values — if any of them changed, the hash would change too. Verify in the public record →

The full record is published daily to an external, append-only public log (Git history + OpenTimestamps), so it is independently verifiable — not even we can rewrite a past record undetectably. Verify on the public log →

External independent verification has been active since 20 June 2026. Earlier records are preserved in our internal ledger but were not externally timestamped before kick-off.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

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