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Superettan predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every Superettan fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

No match has a fair price yet. Fair prices appear once Pinnacle prices a match, usually about a week before kick-off.

Scheduled matches

Sat · 14:00 UTC Orebro SK – Osters IF
Sat · 14:00 UTC GIF Sundsvall – Varbergs BoIS FC
Sat · 14:00 UTC Ostersunds FK – Oddevold
Sat · 14:00 UTC Helsingborg – Falkenbergs FF
Sat · 14:00 UTC IFK Varnamo – IFK Norrkoping
Sat · 14:00 UTC Ljungskile SK – Landskrona BoIS
Sat · 14:00 UTC IK brage – Norrby IF
Sat · 14:00 UTC Sandviken – United Nordic

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

Date	Match	Score	Market gave this result
02 Nov	Landskrona BoIS – Orebro SK	2–1	57%
02 Nov	Osters IF – Helsingborg	3–0	39%
01 Nov	Varbergs BoIS FC – Ljungskile SK	2–2	26%
31 Oct	Falkenbergs FF – Sandviken	2–1	62%
31 Oct	United Nordic – GIF Sundsvall	4–2	66%
31 Oct	Norrby IF – IFK Varnamo	0–3	33%
31 Oct	IFK Norrkoping – Ostersunds FK	3–0	41%
30 Oct	Oddevold – IK brage	2–1	58%
27 Oct	Landskrona BoIS – Varbergs BoIS FC	1–1	23%
26 Oct	Orebro SK – Falkenbergs FF	1–0	34%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Bookmaker margins on Superettan

Across the matches we priced in Superettan, the market's average 1X2 margin is 8.85%. The cheapest bookmaker we track on this league is Pinnacle at 4.94%. The margin is the fee you pay before any skill; it is the single biggest controllable cost in betting.

Pinnacle → · Bookmaker Margin Index → · Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging →

Standings — 2026 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of Mon, 02 Nov · 20:58 UTC. We read it again after matches finish.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	IFK Norrkoping	29	20	5	4	61	18	+43	65
2	Falkenbergs FF	29	16	6	7	54	39	+15	54
3	Varbergs BoIS FC	29	13	9	7	48	37	+11	48
4	Ostersunds FK	29	12	12	5	38	29	+9	48
5	Landskrona BoIS	29	13	8	8	48	34	+14	47
6	Oddevold	29	12	9	8	50	38	+12	45
7	Osters IF	29	14	3	12	49	45	+4	45
8	United Nordic	29	11	9	9	45	49	-4	42
9	Sandviken	29	10	8	11	45	40	+5	38
10	IFK Varnamo	29	10	5	14	38	48	-10	35
11	Ljungskile SK	29	8	10	11	39	40	-1	34
12	Helsingborg	29	8	8	13	37	51	-14	32
13	Orebro SK	29	6	11	12	32	44	-12	29
14	Norrby IF	29	5	12	12	31	44	-13	27
15	IK brage	29	6	8	15	46	57	-11	26
16	GIF Sundsvall	29	6	1	22	21	69	-48	19

Team stats this season

230 matches this season: 2.94 goals per game, 56% over 2.5, 60% both teams scored. xG 3.11 per match (from 26 matches); 10.2 corners and 3.0 cards per match (from 134 matches with statistics).

Team	MP	GF	GA	Over 2.5	BTTS	Clean sheets	xG for / against	Corners	Cards
Falkenbergs FF	29	1.86	1.34	69%	76%	17%	0.72 / 1.49	9.4	1.0
Osters IF	28	1.64	1.61	68%	61%	25%	—	11.6	1.4
IK brage	29	1.59	1.97	66%	66%	17%	1.50 / 0.91	9.9	1.8
Oddevold	29	1.72	1.31	62%	66%	35%	2.06 / 1.13	10.0	1.0
Varbergs BoIS FC	29	1.66	1.28	62%	66%	21%	2.13 / 1.50	10.2	1.6
GIF Sundsvall	29	0.72	2.38	62%	38%	10%	1.45 / 1.33	10.0	1.5
IFK Varnamo	29	1.31	1.66	59%	55%	21%	1.03 / 1.90	10.3	1.3
IFK Norrkoping	29	2.10	0.62	55%	38%	55%	2.29 / 1.16	11.0	1.3
Sandviken	29	1.55	1.38	55%	59%	24%	1.21 / 1.57	9.6	1.4
United Nordic	29	1.55	1.69	55%	72%	21%	1.78 / 1.52	10.4	1.9
Helsingborg	28	1.32	1.71	54%	64%	14%	—	10.9	2.3
Norrby IF	29	1.07	1.52	52%	59%	17%	—	10.2	1.8
Landskrona BoIS	28	1.64	1.18	50%	64%	25%	2.18 / 1.99	11.2	2.1
Ljungskile SK	29	1.34	1.38	48%	62%	14%	1.74 / 1.28	10.4	1.4
Orebro SK	28	1.11	1.50	46%	61%	25%	0.88 / 2.42	9.1	1.3
Ostersunds FK	29	1.31	1.00	35%	55%	31%	0.89 / 2.18	9.1	1.2

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Predicted final table 2026/27 — 5,000 season simulations from our Elo ratings

#	Team	Avg. finish	P(title)	P(relegation)
1	IFK Norrkoping	1	97.3%	0%
2	Oddevold	4.4	0.5%	0%
3	Falkenbergs FF	4.6	0.6%	0%
4	Ostersunds FK	4.7	0.9%	0%
5	IFK Varnamo	5.3	0.4%	0%
6	United Nordic	6.8	0.2%	0.7%
7	Osters IF	7.8	0.1%	1.6%
8	Ljungskile SK	9	0%	3.7%
9	Sandviken	9.1	0%	3.9%
10	Varbergs BoIS FC	9.4	0%	5.3%
11	Landskrona BoIS	9.8	0%	7.1%
12	Norrby IF	11.1	0%	13.4%
13	Helsingborg	12	0%	20.4%
14	Orebro SK	12.8	0%	31.9%
15	IK brage	13.5	0%	44.9%
16	GIF Sundsvall	14.6	0%	67.1%

How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best Superettan predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for Superettan is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every Superettan fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer Superettan betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each Superettan match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit