Czech Liga

Zbrojovka Brno Artis

The sharp market makes Zbrojovka Brno the most likely outcome at 63% — fair odds of 1.59. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Zbrojovka Brno: LWWWL; Artis: LWLLL.

Value check

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

Our prediction

1 Home win 63%
Market probability (1 / X / 2) 63% / 23% / 15%
Our model (1 / X / 2) 70% / 20% / 10%
Fair odds (pick) 1.59
Market odds (Pinnacle) 1.54 / 3.96 / 5.94
Best soft odds (1 / X / 2) 1.57 / 4.20 / 6.60
Edge Score 0
Market Gap
Confidence
Prediction result Won · 1

Match context

The last 2 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 1–1–0 (Zbrojovka Brno wins – draws – Artis wins).

Zbrojovka Brno scored 1.2 and conceded 1.4 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Artis scored 0.6 and conceded 2.2 in 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Why this price?

Zbrojovka Brno
L W W W L
avg 1.2 scored · 1.4 conceded (last 5)
Artis
L W L L L
avg 0.6 scored · 2.2 conceded (last 5)
Recent head-to-head
16 Mar 2026 Zbrojovka Brno 2–0 Artis
08 Aug 2025 Artis 2–2 Zbrojovka Brno

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

🔒 Immutable record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1 · Home win
Odds when logged 1.54
Closing odds 1.64
Prediction CLV -6.1%
Result Won
Record hash — integrity fingerprint 80aedcdc9e03d51d

Logged before kick-off. The hash is an integrity fingerprint of the logged values — if any of them changed, the hash would change too. Verify in the public record →

The full record is published daily to an external, append-only public log (Git history + OpenTimestamps), so it is independently verifiable — not even we can rewrite a past record undetectably. Verify on the public log →

External independent verification has been active since 20 June 2026. Earlier records are preserved in our internal ledger but were not externally timestamped before kick-off.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

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