Beat the closing line
Pick the side you think the market will move toward before kick-off. Your score is your closing line value: the fair closing price against the fair price you got. Lucky results do not count; reading the market does.
How it works
- Pick 1, X or 2 on a match below.
- Your price is Pinnacle's price with the margin removed, from our first reading after your pick (usually within the hour). The odds shown are the latest fair odds, as a guide.
- At kick-off we take Pinnacle's closing price, also with the margin removed.
- Your score is the fair closing probability divided by the fair probability you got, minus 1. If the market moved toward your pick, it is positive.
Both prices are fair (no bookmaker margin), so picking at random averages 0%. Staying above it is hard: none of our ~50 models beat the closing line.
Matches you can pick
next 48 hours, in the leagues where we read Pinnacle every hourThe fair odds shown are a guide. Your price is our first reading after your pick, set by Pinnacle after your pick too.
Picking needs a free account: an email address, no card.
Leaderboard
scored only on CLV, never on resultsThis month (from 20 settled picks)
| # | Player | CLV | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nobody has enough settled picks yet. | |||
| — | Picking at random (expected) | 0.0% | |
Ranked by average CLV. Small samples are noisy: a month at the top can be luck.
All time (from 30 settled picks)
| # | Player | CLV | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nobody has enough settled picks yet. | |||
| — | Picking at random (expected) | 0.0% | |
Ranked by the lower end of the 95% interval, so a short lucky run does not come first. Green or red only when the interval excludes 0.
Rules
- One pick per match, up to 10 picks a day (UTC), on matches in the next 48 hours in the leagues where we read Pinnacle every hour, with a price read in the last 90 minutes.
- Your price is our first Pinnacle reading after your pick, before kick-off, set by Pinnacle after your pick too, so nobody can take a price that has already moved. Without one, the pick is void.
- The closing price is the one shown on the match page and in our track record. A postponed or void match voids the pick.
- No money, no prizes, no bookmaker. It measures reading the market; it is not a betting tip.
- Only the public name you choose appears in the tables, never your email. We may remove a name that is offensive or pretends to be someone else.